We All Want to Shine

Unlike many others I see the results of the present elections as pro-reform

and not anti-reform. It is not an anti-India Shining vote. It is a 'We all

want to Shine' vote. No one is saying we want to have less of information

technology or mobile phones or highways or any of the other symbols of economic

development. People are saying that we want to have more of it and faster. And

well distributed to all cross sections of society. Let me give a couple of

examples.

At a recent career options session that happened in a village on the

outskirts of New Delhi, guess which were the career options that school kids had

maximum questions about. Not farming or plumbing or jobs in PSUs or

manufacturing. Not even information technology. They were about biotechnology.

In fact, the career counselor was quite unprepared for the questions. The kids

clearly had a more long-term vision of the future than one would normally give

them credit for. And they would happily vote for the person or party that they

see will bring their dreams closer to them. Quickly.

On a recent visit to a hill area, 300 km from Delhi, I was completely

astounded to find that mobile phone cards were not available for a period of

three months—and that they were being sold at a premium. Simply because there

were too few available. The purchasers were not only the rich in those areas,

but cab drivers and traders of the area. They would happily vote for those they

feel can get them the mobiles. And if they feel that the incumbent government

has only ensured the availability in metros and large towns, they are likely to

ease it out. As they have done.

While more analysis of why the results came out this way will continue and

some more answers will be found, one hopes that the conclusions will not be

erroneous. In any case, finding the reasons from the past is sometimes less

important than finding out the future impact.

One possible impact of erroneous conclusions could be a slowdown of the

processes that lead to economic growth. That would be sad. After a long time, it

appeared that we were gaining some momentum and getting towards closing the gap

between India and the international community. If that momentum is lost, it

would could take months—or even years to get it rolling again. There is an

argument being floated that government changes do not matter since the direction

of the reform processes remains the same. I am afraid that is not quite OK.

India, like most other economies, has been growing for the last 50 years or

more. One does not recall a time when people said we have had enough growth, now

let us change things so that we stop growing. The direction has never been a

problem. The key problem has been, and remains, speed of change. And that should

not slow down. That would be the real disaster—and not the birthplace of the

person being widely seen as the new Prime Minister.

Therefore, the new government should ensure that the growth pace is kept up.

And that people get and get to see an equitable distribution.

IT and telecom development have unfortunately got embroiled in the reforms

debate in a convoluted way. Both these areas have occupied center stage in the

last few years and if you occupy the center stage you get the bouquets—you

also get the brickbats. Since the benefits have accrued to few people, it is

natural that there are some brickbats. There are assertions that Chandrababu

Naidu lost since he was too pro technology. The NDA alliance lost because it

gave too much importance to the new technologies. That is completely incorrect.

Therefore, it would be a good idea to leave IT and telecom alone and let them

grow. The much touted BPO and IT industries are shining (even if that is a bad

word post elections) examples of what India can do outside its borders and they

have a role to play there. They are not by themselves huge job creators. And

will not be in the near future. All said and done, they employ, maybe, one

million people. India's total employment is 400 million with a need to add

five to 10 million jobs a year. That is not going to come from these sectors.

So to take away the emphasis from them would serve no major purpose. And in

all probability, there will be little change in priority on these sectors.











Shyam

Malhotra



The author is Editor-in-Chief of CyberMedia, the publishers of Dataquest.