Trends 2007

The year 2007 will not be radically different from the previous

year as technologies take time to mature. There are definitely many firsts that

will be talked about in the year 2007. Windows Vista and Office 2007, two

products launched at the beginning of the year will remain the talk of the year.

The high level of interest that has been generated about the security features

of the latest products will accentuate this. Initial reports suggest an

impressive uptake globally as well as in India. According to Microsoft

estimates, customer adoption in 2007 has crossed 885,000 for Microsoft Office

System and 200,000 for Windows Vista licenses. The year 2007 is also expected to

witness smarter devices of all kinds with special focus on form factors. Mobile

phones, PDAs, MP3 players, and external storage devices, known for their dull

form factor, will get smarter and sleeker.

Broadband, which remained a non-starter last year despite all

the hype that was generated around it, is expected to get a boost, thanks to the

offer of speeds of 1 Mb and 2 Mb (from the earlier 256 KB) announced recently.

But, companies need to be careful on the quality of services front to avoid

missing yet another opportunity. Virtualization, which grabbed the headlines in

2006, is expected to make further inroads into enterprises. This will mean more

flexibility and cost savings for them.

Blogging, social and professional networking, and the emergence

of wikis are some of the important developments which will see increased

activity in the coming year. With an increased push by telcos and ISPs to expand

the growth of the Internet and broadband, e-Commerce and other online

transactions are in for some action in the year 2007. Format war between Blue

Ray and HD-DVD is set to intensify in the coming year creating a headache for

the disc and player makers, and above all, the users. Options such as a multi

format disc with a capacity to store content in both format and multi format

player may emerge during the year. On the home front, the action will intensify

as consumers start to depend more and more on their devices while on the move.

Overall, the outlook for the year 2007 looks bright for enterprises, industry,

and also consumers.

Gung-ho on Virtualization



Virtualization (storage, server, networking and operating system
virtualization), which grabbed headlines in 2006, is expected to make further

inroads into enterprises across the world, including India. This is largely due

to the power of the storage vendor to convince about the ability of the

technology to deliver goods. Virtualization has proved to be a boon for

enterprises as it offers excellent flexibility and cost savings. This will also

get a boost due to increase in the number of vendors who are getting bullish on

the growth of the desktop virtualization space-an area not so significant in

the previous year. This whole virtualization landscape is also set to expand

with the growth of the virtualization software market.

Traditional Software's New Rival



Also referred to as software on demand, software as a service (SaaS) is
going to pose tough competition to the traditional software licensing model in

the year 2007. SaaS has no upfront fee and users pay as per use. According to

research done by Springboard Research, the SaaS market in Asia Pacific is

projected to grow at a CAGR of 84% from 2005 to 2008.

Companies like Salesforce.com and Right Now technologies have

made remarkable progress on the SaaS front. Software giants like Microsoft have

just started getting into the domain while Oracle is already there. In a

startling outcome of a research done by the Yankee Group, the total cost of

operating a SaaS package is about 50% lesser than an equivalent system bought in

the traditional way. Enterprises are realizing the value of the new model. CRM

is the most popular SaaS application being used by enterprises.

On the consumer side, there are software services delivered by

companies like Google. This trend is set to gain momentum in the year 2007 as

these products move out of the beta phase and become enterprise class.

Dilemma over Windows Vista and Office 2007



It would be a crucial year for Windows Vista and Office 2007. Security and
other claims of Microsoft will be put to test and severely scrutinized.

According to Microsoft, its new software release will make people-ready

businesses, simplify how they work together, better protect and manage content,

find information and improve their business insight, and reduce deployment costs

and security vulnerabilities. From an enterprise perspective, it is expected

that larger enterprises will go for it more than the SMB segment due to cost and

other factors. SMBs will wait and watch till the hype around Vista subsides.

Enterprises using XP or those who have recently upgraded to XP will think twice

before investing in Microsoft. Probably realizing the importance of educating

customers after launching the product, Microsoft recently kicked off a road show

covering seven major cities to educate customers and partners on this

significant product.

Mega Deals on the Way



The year 2006, which started with smaller deals, ended with a bang with Tech
Mahindra landing a $1 bn deal with BT for strategic outsourcing services. This

augurs well for the year 2007, with more big deals in the process of

negotiations. According to TPI, renewal deals worth $100 bn are expected in the

coming two years. Some examples include the DuPont deal worth $4 bn with

Accenture while Monstanto is expected to provide a $2.5 bn contract to IBM

Global Services.

Increased Managed Services



It is expected that in the year 2007, with the introduction of new
technologies coupled with increased security vulnerabilities, enterprises,

particularly the large ones, will try to play safe and go for managed services.

There has been a realization amongst CIOs on the cost advantages, better

manageability and optimization of IT resources. This change in mindset has not

happened overnight. Managed service providers along with solution vendors had a

difficult time all these years convincing and educating enterprises to outsource

their IT infrastructure. Another important factor in the decision making process

of enterprises for managed services is the promise of guaranteed SLA from

vendors.

Devices—Smart, Smarter, Smartest



Devices of all kinds ranging from mobile to storage will continue to get
smarter in 2007. Apple's launch (though India launch is a year away) of the

iPhone, the iPod experience in handset, is something that all global analysts

were debating till the last month. If successful, iPhone will set quality

standards amongst handset manufacturers. But for India, where most of the

handset vendors are pushing for low cost devices, an Apple phone may remain

elusive till a low cost iPhone is announced or launched. It will also put

pressure on companies like Nokia, Sony Ericsson, and even Blackberry to make

their devices smarter. Even low-end mobile devices are set to get more features

rich with a possibility of color display.

The capacity to hold more data has been a challenge for most

storage vendors. The fight of increased storage capacity has now led to the

availability of sleeker plug and play devices. As an indication of this Seagate

recently started shipping its 5-mm and 1.8-inch (Lyrion hard drive with single

platter 60 GB) hard drives enabled by perpendicular recording technology. This

will store up to 80 movies, 200 hours of music videos, 20 hours of standard

definition video or 12 hours of high-definition videos. There will also be a

proliferation of non-PC devices with the capability of connecting to the

Internet and making calls from services such as Skype.

Mainstreaming Blogs, Social Networking, and Wikis



Blogging is all set for a wide acceptance in India in the year 2007. Almost
all popular websites including Rediff.com is witnessing intense activities.

Also, it has spread to the websites of most newspapers and televisions. NDTV

blogs is an example. Social networking is also set to take India by storm in the

coming year, thanks to Orkut. Orkut continues to expand its base in India with

increasing number of Indians taking to it. Several Indian sites have also

cropped up trying to cash in on the newfound zeal. Minglebox.com and yaari.com

are some examples of such networking sites.

Hunger for free authentic information on any topic has seen the

emergence of wikis (a web application that allows users to add and edit content

on a website). Wikipedia is an example of this initiative. This is emerging as a

trend and the year 2007 is likely to see more activity on this front. Wikis is

all set to evolve as a collaborative tool in the coming year.

Online Transactions Increasing Acceptability



Increasing security threats is unlikely to deter Indians from reaping the fruits
of online transactions. Be it shopping or booking airline or railway tickets,

Indians will continue to flock the Net.

With online ticketing being decentralized by airlines and also

railways, one can now go to a petrol pump or post office to book a ticket. This

decentralization will become more intense in the year 2007, giving a major boost

to e-commerce.

Apart from travel and shopping related e-commerce opportunities,

online stock trading is another area of activity which is expected to generate a

lot of interest.

Exposure to New Tech



In the year 2007, an increasing number of Indians will have the opportunity
of experiencing some technologies that they have never experienced before.

Convergence of network and services will bring about this change. Users will get

to hear more new terminologies like IPTV, WiMax, and set top boxes. MTNL has

already started IPTV services in Delhi and Mumbai in a limited way. Other

private operators are all set to launch similar offerings during the year 2007

giving users multiple options and freedom to go for what they want. While Tata

Sky launched their services in 2006, Dish TV and Doordarshan also got

aggressive. With cable operators all set to implement conditional access system,

the competition is set to grow this year.

With players like Tata Indicom and Aircel announcing their plans

to start WiMax services and other evincing interest, this new area is in for a

heightened interest in the year 2007. Both state telcos, C-DoT-Alcatel's WiMax

Center in Chennai's recent launch of WiMax reality center is a crucial step in

that direction. BSNL and MTNL are already doing their WiMax trials.

Mobile Internet Push



More and more users are using the Internet and accessing emails through
various options, be it datacards or the GPRS network. The momentum is expected

to continue with the introduction of smarter devices capable of offering push

email services. On the other hand, service providers are also realizing the

importance of anytime, anywhere connectivity requirements of corporate users and

have started offering more value added services. The year 2007 will see more

activities on this front with vendors like RIM (maker of Blackberry) dropping

their exclusive tie up with Airtel and giving clear intention of tying up with

more service providers. Hutch tie up is an example. It is expected that Reliance

and Tata Indicom will also start offering these devices during the year 2007.

BSNL and MTNL can even follow suit.

Format War to Continue



In all probability, the Blue Ray and HD-DVD format war will spill well into
2007. Options such as a multi format disc with a capacity to store content in

both format and multi format player may emerge during the year. Warner Home

Video at a presentation at the CES 2007, created a flutter with the announcement

of the Total High-Def disc, a disc that will put an HD DVD-formatted movie on

one side and a Blu Ray version on the other.

Year of Broadband



Despite all the hype around broadband, the year 2006 proved to be a bad year for
broadband. But that will change in 2007. Incidentally, the Ministry of

Communications and IT has announced the year 2007 as the year of broadband. With

BSNL and MTNL announcing availability of 1 MB and 2 MB kind of speed to their

DSL customers, the competition is set to intensify in the broadband space.

Though no announcements as such have been made by any private operators till

now, it has to come sooner than later. The failure of under-configured low cost

PCs has been an eye opener, thus PC vendors are likely to change their strategy

and provide suitably configured PCs at an affordable cost. With the rates of

Internet access at cyber cafes going down, more and more Indians will flock to

these outlets. As Sify and other service providers' plan to go to smaller

cities and towns, the broadband access options are likely to multiply in the

coming year.

Increasing Security Threats



Apart from the possibility of threats from within, increased security threat
from outside will force enterprises to further strengthen their infrastructure.

According to a McAfee advisory for 2007, there are 10 possible types of attacks

which enterprises can expect in the coming year. These attacks are:

• The number of password-stealing websites will increase using
  
  fake sign-in pages

• The volume of spam will continue to increase

• The popularity of video sharing on the Web makes it
  
  inevitable that hackers will target MPEG files as a means to distribute
  
  malicious code

• Mobile phone attacks will become more prevalent as mobile
  
  devices become smarter and more connected

• Adware will go mainstream following the increase in
  
  commercial potentially unwanted programs (PUPs)

• Identity theft and data loss will continue to be a public
  
  issue

• The use of bots will increase as a tool favored by hackers

• Parasitic malware, or viruses that modify existing files on
  
  a disk, will make a comeback

• The number of rootkits on 32-bit platforms will increase,
  
  but protection and remediation capabilities will increase as well

• Vulnerabilities will continue to cause concern fueled by the
  
  underground market for vulnerabilities

To protect from these threats and malicious programs, McAfee

Avert Labs urges both enterprises and consumers to constantly stay updated with

the latest data definition files (DATs). It also suggested the installation of

the latest patches and implementation of a multi-layered approach for detecting

and blocking attacks.

Battle for Digital Homes to Intensify



In the home front, consumers are more dependent on their gadgets while on
the move. Different types of gadgets which can talk to each other will gain

acceptance. Vendors have started looking at this segment very passionately. The

shape of things to come can be gauged from HP's recent announcement offering

an expanded family of entertainment hubs. In the first announcement, HP has the

enhanced Digital Entertainment Center (DEC) for PC enthusiasts who want to

combine email and Internet access with digital entertainment capabilities. HP

also announced the HDTV media hub-a product that enables consumers to access,

manage and enjoy digital photos, music, TV and video combined with the

capabilities of HDTV, a digital cable set-top box and a dual-tuner digital video

recorder (DVR).

Mobility—an Action Packed Year



The year 2006 was the year of experimentation with mobility. The year 2007
will see mobility becoming an integral part of an enterprises' overall

communications strategy, providing seamless access to business applications

while on the move. Mobility solution vendors had a difficult time during the

year 2006 educating the enterprise on the benefits of integrating their

enterprise network with the mobile workforce. As more and more business

applications become available, enterprises would shed their inhibition to go

mobile. Most telecom service providers are ready with some killer applications

which can help enterprises improve their productivity and cut cost.

Compliance Driven Security



The concern over worms and viruses has not abated nor are the hazards from
these traditional security concerns getting any less. However, the market is

undergoing a fundamental change. It's re-defining the dynamics of the security

market as regulatory compliances take the lead as a more important and critical

driver of information security, surpassing worms and viruses-as revealed by a

recent Ernst & Young survey report.

The need for compliance with regulations like Sarbanes-Oxley,

Clause 49 of the listing agreement, etc is going to be the primary concerns

addressed by the information security initiatives of organizations worldwide.

The trend will be reflected in the Indian market as well through 2006 as

awareness levels, with respect to regulatory compliance, increase. While one is

likely to see the security strategies of enterprises more strategically aligned

to the regulatory compliance requirements in 2006, there will also be a spurt in

information security services and products specifically built around meeting

compliance issues as the year progresses. Though not forgotten, worms and

viruses will have to wait.

Collaboration to Scale New Heights



The shape of things to come is vibrant. Cisco chief John Chambers recently gave
a stunning presentation of how real time video collaboration across several

locations can be done over the Internet. As the availability of bandwidth

continues to become a non-issue for enterprises, there will be increased

activity on the Web conferencing front. Not only video, but also other forms of

collaborations like collaborative document management and instant messaging will

gain increased acceptance during the year 2007. Enterprises will work towards a

collaboration strategy to be more productive. This will go hand in hand with

leading collaboration vendors like Microsoft pushing for their platforms.

Interaction over IM also is set to become more collaborative.

Understanding the sentiments of the Internet users, MSN and Yahoo opened their

messenger to talk to each other, sometime back. Now users of MSN and Yahoo

network can chat, talk, and do video calling. Skype is also set to reinvent

itself with new set of offerings in the coming year. The year 2007 will see more

proliferation of non-PC devices which can connect to the Internet for different

kinds of applications.

Heightened Activity for RFID



There was slow progress on the RFID front last year despite the Government
of India freeing up radio frequency in the UHF (ultra high frequency) 865-867

MHz band. With the announcement of the imminent entry of large retail giants

like Wallmart, Tesco, and others in the country, the RFID is in for a heightened

activity. Even the domestic retail initiatives of Reliance and Aditya Birla

group can act as a catalyst for the RFID industry success in India. The retail

industry has been one of the largest implementers of the RFID technology. The

reason for slow adoption is primarily two fold-prohibitive costs and

international standards which are still evolving. Companies are realizing the

importance of RFID over barcoding and the year 2007 may be the time for the

technology to look up. Some of the other applications which can see some growth

include pharmaceutical, fleet management and toll collection on the highways.

Technologies to Watch



Wireless Chargers: Freedom from Messy Wires?



Forgot to bring your phone charger and are looking for one. Welcome

to the world of wireless chargers.

A company called Wildcharge, was introduced at the CES 2007,

which has a totally new concept in charging-a sans messy wires. The company

aims to free users from the need to carry and use bulky chargers, power adapters

and cords for all mobile electronic devices, such as cell phones, laptops,

portable music players, et al. You can just put the device you want to charge on

a pad which will come in various sizes and prices starting at $40. The extra

benefit is that there is no power consumption till placed the device is on it.

Voice over WiFi (VoWiFi)



The year 2007 will showcase VoWiFi as a new trend in voice

communications. VoWiFi is the wireless version of WiFi designed to work on

wireless devices such as laptops or PDAs. The concept aims at taking advantage

of a mobile system that offers reliable coverage indoors and higher voice

quality than traditional mobile or wired telephony.

Sudesh Prasad





sudeshp@cybermedia.co.in