Toward More Processing Power

Every technological development is met with some support
and some skepticism. The treatment received by the 64-bit processor has been no
different. The evolution of 64-bit in PCs started when AMD announced its Athlon
64 processors in 2003 and created a new market segment. AMD pitched in on both
the desktop and the notebook application scenarios. The company even went a step
further saying that it will totally overhaul 32-bit, in time, and will only vend
64-bit chips.

While on the desktop side, the battle for 64-bit is being
waged between Intel and AMD, with Intel countering AMDs Athlon with its EM64T
extensions, which has an extended memory space. But, by and large, the 64-bit
computing on the desktop side has remained at the higher end of the spectrum.
Moreover, Microsoft has already rolled out its XP 64-bit edition that supports
both AMD and Intel processors. The battle took an interesting turn when 64-bit
forayed into the notebook market. It opened up a debate about its market
adoption.

Why 64-bit?

With 64-bit on the desktop side becoming a reality, the scenario took a new
dimension when AMD launched its Turion, a 64-bit processor for mobile computing.
This was a significant move. Exorbitant prices have restricted the growth of
64-bit systems on the desktop side and with Turion 64 ushering in new levels of
affordability makes it significant for the notebook market.

But all the while the biggest spoiler is the dual core
processor, which by virtue of two cores, gives more computing power to the user.
So the dual core in a way prohibits growth of 64-bit computing. If we look at
the notebook processor landscape, Intel's launch of Core Duo will also slow
down adoption of Turion based notebooks. But with Microsoft's Vista round the
corner, users will increasingly evince interest on AMD notebooks. AMD pitches
hard that its Turion processor prepares the user for the future computing needs
and players. However, from a buyer's point of view, buying looks extremely
challenging. This is because consumer's options have clearly expanded in the
last two quarters. Some critics argue that we do not need 64-bit notebooks at
this point of time, as there are not enough popular 64-bit applications. But
advocates of 64-bit computing say that it brings enterprise class performance to
the personal computing.

Changing Processor Landscape

Over the last three years Intel's Centrino has become a default standard
in mobile computing. It created a new premise in power consumption. This is a
major shift from P4, which consumes more power. Intel's recent launch of Core
Duo, further escalated battery life to a minimum of five hours.

On the other end of the spectrum, AMDs Turion also offers a
good battery life and competes head on with Intel based notebooks. For the first
time the notebook market is aligning on definite lines of power, value, and
performance. Here, a new mindset that crept in 2005 was that performance is not
always just processing power; whole of other aspects such as form factor, wide
screen, and above all a good battery life also goes into it. In this new normal
paradigm, where does 64-bit notebooks fit in? Right now only AMD has a pure
64-based processor and Intel claims that its Core Duo will support 64-bit apps.
Looking from a price, performance, and future readiness point, AMD surely has
the edge. But it is a double edged sword as Intel's current Dual Core
processor is seen as more than enough computing power as of now. And the
industry observers say that it can also support Windows Vista. Here AMDs
campaign so far for its Turion is compared only to Centrino, which cannot run
Vista. Hence, the biggest challenge for AMD is to position Turion in such a way
that it remains a step ahead and different from Intel processors.

AMD's manufacturing faclity

As we look at the expected notebook market dynamics in
second half of 2006, it looks extremely interesting because Intel is already
working on its 64-bit dual core processor called Merom. Observer feel that Merom
will coincide with the launch of Windows Vista, whose exact launch date is yet
to be known, but beyond XP, Vista is a major milestone for Microsoft and PCs
will get an OS that can fully leverage 64-bit processor. AMD is also working on
its dual core Turion and these developments puts notebook market in the
limelight in 2H'06. The Dual Core Turion processors are slated to hit the
market well before Intel's dual core Merom 64. Moreover, AMD as per initial
reports available will launch a slew of Dual Core Turion variants by May 06.
This clearly indicates an impeding price war in 64-bit Dual Core notebooks in 2H
'06.

Need for Apps

The maturing of 64-bit in the notebooks space is a key development, but its
adoption however, hinges on availability of new applications that the users can
really benefit. A look at the horizon shows the trend of 64-bit in entertainment
and gaming industry. But as of now, most of analysts are looking at 64-bit in
notebooks with guarded optimism. But there is universal consensus that 64-bit
will happen soon and in a big way.

Shrikanth G

shrikanthg@cybermedia.co.in