Late last year, when the economic ice storm howled into
Silicon Valley, Adobe Systems had been toying with the idea of buying a $10
million system for managing its sales operations. Instead, to hold down costs,
it signed up with an Internet company, Salesforce.com, which provides 200
salespeople with up-to-the-minute information about their customers and sales
activities via any Web browser.
The cost: a mere $50 per person per month. Setup time: a
couple of days. "It was something we could use immediately and very
inexpensively," says Bruce Chizen, Adobe’s chief executive.
Those are words that CEOs rarely get to utter when they’re
talking about computers and software. Indeed, according to Lew Epstein, Adobe’s
vice-president for North American sales, who lined up the Salesforce.com deal,
"software typically delivers less than you expect in more time and for more
money than you expect."
This is the tech industry’s greatest failing. For years,
producers of everything from computers and software to handheld gadgets have
promised products that are ever more powerful, easier to use, and increasingly
affordable. All too often, the industry has failed to keep those promises. US
corporations spent $2.2 trillion on IT during the 1990s, says market researcher
IDC. That helped productivity growth rates nearly double in the second half of
the decade. But corporations also spent money on stuff that didn’t live up to
the hype. At the same time, consumers were deluged with new gizmos, software
programs, and Web-browsing experiences. Some were megahits, such as the Windows
PC operating system. But many more were flops. Remember Apple’s Newton? It was
supposed to understand handwriting–but couldn’t.
Now comes the big cool-down. A decade-long cycle of a booming
economy and technical innovation has come to an end. Nobody knows exactly how
the next months and years will play out. But one thing is sure: Now, more than
at any
time in the past decade, buyers are demanding products and services that really
deliver.
Business customers are in deep penny-pinching mode. Their
info-tech spending is expected to increase just 8.6%, to $1 trillion worldwide
this year, vs 12.4% last year, according to IDC. That’s forcing them to
concentrate on getting the most out of the software and computers they already
have. Anything new has to guarantee that it will boost productivity or create
new sources of revenue. The goal is getting a healthy return on investment, or
ROI. "Businesses are saying they want more bang for the buck out of the
technology they buy," says Michael Fleisher, CEO of market researcher
Gartner Group. "If this industry doesn’t deliver that, it will lose the
hearts and minds of the business leaders and they will look elsewhere to make
their gains."
For consumers, the era of being guinea pigs for tech
companies is over. A host of new gizmos and services is on the way. They’re
supposed to do for the rest of the house what the food processor and microwave
did for the kitchen: harness technology to make life a lot easier. But to win
converts during an economic slowdown, these products and services will have to
be inexpensive and work as reliably as the telephone. "You’ll either take
that seriously, or you won’t be able to play," says Craig Mundie, senior
VP for advanced strategies at Microsoft.
Winning over those tightwad corporate buyers will be the
toughest immediate challenge. According to a survey in late May of 225 chief
information officers by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co, they’re most
likely to cut consulting and new custom software development–the really
complicated stuff. Least likely to face the knife are hardware and software that
improve security, networks, and customer relationships. The first two are
essential to keeping e-businesses running.
Companies are counting on customer-relationship software to
cut costs and boost revenues.
Quick results
Seven months ago, Orlando-based Hard Rock Cafe International wanted to boost
revenues by increasing the frequency of visits of regular patrons to its 104
restaurants. Using E.piphany’s relationship-marketing software along with a
set of fan-club programs, it amassed a list of more than 225,000 customers. Hard
Rock then e-mailed promotional offers to these customers that encouraged them to
visit its restaurants and buy souvenirs on its Web site. After one promotion,
Hard Rock sold more than $150,000 in merchandise. Often it takes years for
corporations to make back the cost of their technology, but Hard Rock already
has recovered 80% of its expenses. "It was a very quick turnaround,"
says Kelly Maddern, director of information technology.
One of the most promising new technologies for producing a solid return on
investment is collaborative software. These are programs that improve
communications between employees, or between a company and its suppliers and
other business partners. To get employees plugged in so they can collaborate and
make decisions quickly, many corporations are buying laptops or handhelds
equipped with wireless technologies that blend the mobility of cellular with the
rich information of the Net. For instance, Microsoft has installed a wireless
LAN on its vast corporate campus in Redmond. If an important meeting is called
suddenly, an employee away from his or her desk can find out via an e-mail alert
to a laptop computer, then wirelessly tap into the Web to gather information and
prepare a presentation for the meeting.
Not everybody is up for trying out cutting-edge technologies, though. Some
corporations just want help in digesting the technology they already have. One
approach gaining popularity is so-called enterprise integration software–which
links disparate programs so information can be passed more easily between them.
Tyre major Pirelli wanted to link its inventory and order systems to its 2,000
tire dealers to reduce inventories and improve customer service. But it decided
not to buy new customer-relationship software. Instead, Pirelli bought
integration software from TIBCO Software in Palo Alto, California, which
connects more than 100 software programs that didn’t previously work together.
Pirelli figures this approach cost half as much as adding new applications, and
it was up and running in one-third the time.
For some products, a better RoI comes from paying less. That’s what’s
happening with PCs: Computer makers are slashing their sticker prices to win
business. The average price for a business PC has dropped 19% since last fall,
to $1,017, according to market researcher NPD Intelect. Dell Computer is leading
the charge–advertising cuts as deep as 20% and going even deeper when it
negotiates individual contracts. Blue Shield of California recently wrangled a
deal for 700 Dell PCs that will save it about $1 million off the price it paid
to a competitor for a similar deal last year.
Price cuts likely will slow at some point, since desktop PCs have become
unprofitable for most PC companies. Now, a new price war is being fought over
more powerful computer servers.
Make it work
Dirt-cheap hardware alone doesn’t solve corporations’
biggest technology headache: the complexity of managing big networks. To address
that, most hardware makers are starting to sell computing as a service to their
corporate customers. Joining a host of companies, they operate data centers that
run websites and applications and store data for corporations, delivering
services as a utility via the Web. Analysts say companies can expect to shave
15% to 20% off their costs by outsourcing their computing this way. The latest
advance in the data centers is the arrival of so-called blade servers, computers
that are less than two inches thick and can easily be added when more power is
needed. Concern about handing over their data to outsiders has slowed the
takeoff for computing-on-tap. Still, the economic pinch is driving corporations
to cut costs, so IDC expects the market to mushroom, from $6.4 billion last year
to $59.9 billion in 2005.
Technologies That Deliver |
Even though budgets are tight, corporations are willing to spend on computing systems that help increase sales or cut costs. Here’s a sampling of technologies: |
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The just-make-it-work imperative is equally acute when it
comes to consumer products. For years, tech companies have been promising
high-speed Internet access. Because of the cost and complexity, fewer than 10
million American homes have speedy access. To woo customers, companies are now
making it far easier to install and use than in the past.
Previously, subscribers who didn’t want to pay $200 for
professional installation had to load several CD-ROMs and install modem drivers
to get their PCs to work with their new modems. It might take a few hours–or a
few days–to get up and running. SBC Communications last year started providing
new subscribers with a package of self-help software that streamlines the setup
process. The software walks customers through the setup in less than an hour.
SBC says 85% of new subscribers use the software, and the company is adding
4,000 fast-access customers a day.
The payoff: SBC ranks No 1 in the country, with more than 1
million such subscribers.
Other broadband providers are doing similar things to make
their services more palatable. That’s one reason market researcher TeleChoice
expects US residential fast-access phone connections to grow from 5.7 million
this year to 14.5 million by the end of 2003.
That kind of attention to the consumer experience will be
needed to make the online music business take hold. By attracting 26 million
users, the Napster music-swapping service proved that both the technology and
the demand exist to turn the Web into a powerful music distribution vehicle. Now
that court challenges from the music industry have eviscerated Napster, it’s
up to the recording companies to transform music on the Web from a phenomenon
into a business. Two major online sales sites owned by partnerships of the major
labels, MusicNet and Pressplay, are expected to debut by the end of the summer.
Their first challenge will be coming up with prices customers are willing to pay
that also deliver profits.
The winning sites will be the ones that use this new media to
create a truly compelling new experience–as MTV did 20 years ago. RealNetworks’
Real.com site is showing the way with its GoldPass subscription service. For
$9.95 a month, subscribers get access to a wide variety of music, video
interviews with pop stars, and live sporting events. The service has landed more
than 300,000 subscribers in a year.
Seen, not heard
Look for a similar breakthrough in the popularity of home
computer networking. IDC expects homes with networks to quadruple, to 16.4
million by 2004. The allure: Home networks will let several people in a
household get online, at one time and for one price. AOL is working on software
to simplify setting up and using such a network. Microsoft is building basic
home networking technology into its upcoming Windows XP operating system. On top
of that, if you have one wireless network at home and another at work, and you
carry your laptop back and forth, you don’t have to fiddle with the
computer settings anymore to switch from one network to another. The laptop
"discovers" the networks and then automatically makes the switch to
the correct network.
This kind of machine-to-machine communication could bring the
next important advances in computing. Microsoft, for one, is creating a family
of technologies called Hailstorm, due next year, that stores such personal info
as your name, address, credit cards, and calendar, and passes it–with your
permission–between Web sites. It’s designed to ease online purchases, to
alert you when your airplane flight is late, or to let you know when you’re
due at the dentist. All of this happens in the background, so you don’t have
to get involved in the details. Companies including American Express and Verizon
are testing the technology. Hailstorm fits in with the vision of Nicholas
Negroponte, Media Lab director at MIT: Digital servants shouldn’t require a
lot of supervision. "These things will be able to know you, be able to
learn, be able to improve–and be able to get out of your face," he says.
Tech slowdown? Sure. But this also is a time when practical
new products can emerge that deliver value and satisfaction for customers,
shaping the way technology is created and used for many years to come.
By Steve Hamm with Andrew Park in Dallas, Roger O Crockett in
Chicago, and Spencer Ante in New York in BusinessWeek. Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc