The Notebook is the Computer

Intel launched the Centrino chipset, HP gave a new wireless notebook to actor Rahul Bose, a slew of portables emerged with price-tags at the 60k and even 50k level... And Dataquest figures showed 50% growth in notebooks last year.

A boom? Forget it. The DQ Top20 lists notebook sales at 48,250 for 2002-03… or 2.1% of all PCs sold. Okay, it grew a bit from the previous year’s 32,140

(1.6% of all PCs)…

In value terms it’s better: 5% of the PC market. And if you consider that most notebook sales were major brands who sell only a third of the PCs in India, well, then 6% of their PCs were notebooks.

But however you slice it, it’s less than 50,000 amidst over 2 million desktops. Dell projects global 2004 sales of 10 million notebooks (a quarter of the world market). And it isn’t all business users: in the US market, the consumer segment could grow to half the market next year.

Right, so India isn’t portable country.

But here’s an analogy and an apparent paradox. In 1995, mobile phones were expensive and elitist, not quite what Indians needed. The handsets cost 25 times more than wired phones did, and mobile calls were 40 times dearer.

And yet last year, of the 10 million new phone connections Indians bought, 75% were mobile. Delhi has more mobiles than fixed lines. India will, too, by 2007, says our group publication Voice&Data. 

What changed? And did cheaper phones and services cause the volumes, or the other way around?

When people see value in a product or service, they go for it. Usually, though, a price threshold needs to be crossed for a ‘big shift’.

Are we heading there with the notebook? Very slowly. The 60k price level is significant, and it has a few models, but few major players yet (and many users are wary of an expensive product like a notebook from a small player). Half-way answers like “desk-notes” are niche products.

But then, no one’s really pushed for the benefits of the portable in India. Neither vendors, nor businesses. Major business users could have negotiated lower-priced, older-spec models. Major vendors could have pushed cheaper, less-than-cutting edge models for specific markets, such as media, or education.

But we’re seeing the early drivers. Cheaper models, integrated enterprise apps, the need for connectivity, higher-tech higher education. And Wi-Fi. Wireless connectivity at airports and coffee shops will give us a reason to pack a notebook on a day trip. Which makes this a good target for 2004-05: 5% of all PCs sold in India; 10% for the MNC brands. It’s still invisible against the global figures, but it’s a start.

Prasanto K Roy