From Lord Kelvin to Ken Olson to the great Thomas Watson,
all have tried to play oracle, but did not do a great job. However, the
soothsayer who warned Julius Caesar of the Ides of March was bang on target.
Actually he is the only one I know who looked like a professional playing
oracle. Despite knowing the dangers of putting one foot in a place where it
hurts, I still fall prey to the strong temptation of playing “soothsayer.”
Let's try and gaze into the crystal ball to see how the future of RFID
applications will look like.
The Future
Some estimates suggest that in the very near future, simple RFID tags will
cost as low as five US cents or maybe less. That will open floodgates for
economical widespread use. Actually at that level, they will be so cheap that
you could also think of implanting them in wine glasses (Yes, you read that
right!) At that place, the tag provides a novel way of sensing the level of wine
in a glass and will then communicate the information to restaurant staff so that
they know when a glass is almost empty and requires a refill of wine or water or
any other liquid that resides in the glass. This will help the restaurant
deliver immaculate and unobtrusive service and obviously create a huge potential
for sales spikes. In fact wine and liquors are high-margin restaurant items. The
dual impact of the technology will unleash a huge potential new-to-world market.
ExxonMobil has introduced Speedpass, an RFID-based system for payment. Customers subscribe to Speedpass for free and provide a credit card number for making petrol purchases |
Let's look at another application. An RFID tag can be
embedded in a pizza delivery bag to create smart pizza delivery bag. The
embedded tag can then use a heat and time algorithm to calculate when it should
tell a base unit to stop charging the heating element. A thermal switch
connected to the RFID tag can provide an additional layer to stop the heating.
With embedded algorithms newer non-metallic heating elements can be tested
instead of the conventional metallic heating elements. This will help create
bags that are energy efficient and can be lighter considering the use of newer
materials for its heating element.
The automotive sector is another area that will feel a
widespread change because of RFID. Ford is actually using RFID extensively on
its manufacturing lines for engines. Most cars in the future will come with
smart RFID tags, which will forever point out not only the location but also the
health of the vehicle. In a simple scenario, readers will be mounted on lamp
posts and the real speed of a car zipping past two lamp posts will require just
a little simple arithmetic. The RFID tag will also reveal the identity of the
owner to the reader and also an associated mobile number. An electronic
over-speeding challan will be generated and text messaged to the offender within
a couple of seconds.
The Present
The Chicago Marathon is a mega event that has nearly 40,000 runners
participating. It is a gigantic challenge to track runners over the race course
and provide them with accurate running times. That's because at a typical
marathon, many runners stand behind each other at the starting line. When the
starter's pistol signals a race's beginning, only a few runners cross the
starting line in sync with the timekeeper. This means that these few runners,
the race leaders, are the only ones who receive accurate split and finishing
times. Under the Chicago Marathon's previous practices, staff guided all
runners who successfully crossed the finish line into chutes where race numbers
and elapsed times were recorded by officials. When runners completed the race
very close to one another, these chutes would sometimes get backed up, making it
difficult for officials to record runners' times accurately causing
frustration for race participants and staff alike.
Enter RFID tag! A tag is attached to the running shoes of
all race participants. With a few readers strategically placed along the route,
Chicago Marathon staff can now record the precise start, finish and split times
of each runner, giving them an accurate account of their performance.
What's more, readers along the route ensure that all
runners follow the correct course, dissuading those who might be tempted to
cheat.
Hang on there's more. Another service generated out of
the RFID tagging is MarathonMessenger, an e-mail service that provides its
subscribers with information on runner timings allowing friends, family and
marathon fans to stay abreast of events. In its first year of use at the Chicago
Marathon, the service had 15,000 registered users!
Let's look at another one. ExxonMobil, one of the
world's largest energy companies, introduced Speedpass, an RFID-based system
for payment. Customers subscribe to Speedpass for free and provide a credit card
number for making petrol purchases. In return, they receive a small transponder
attached to a key ring. When a customer swipes the transponder in front of the
petrol pump, it authorizes the pump to release petrol or diesel and charges the
customer's credit card.
Speedpass creates a number of conveniences for customers.
First, Speedpass purchases take about 15% less time than credit card purchases.
Second, Speedpass purchases are more reliable: magnetic credit card stripes are
prone to damage which can make purchasing inconvenient for customers whose
damaged cards can't be read by credit card terminals. Speedpass goes even
further, allowing easier checkout at convenience stores. Research suggests that
as much as 65% of the revenues of a petrol pump in the US are non-fuel related.
The results put in one word have been striking. Speedpass
subscribers, on average, visit Mobil petrol pumps one more time each month and
spend 2 — 3% more each month than other customers.
No Slowing Down
While history is a bad yardstick to forecast the future, nonetheless it must
not be forgotten that technology is the greatest catalyst for change. From
railways to automobiles, from radio to TV to computers, technology has never
failed to amaze and get done the unthinkable. It's precisely this attribute
that has proven all the soothsayers wrong, and hopefully me too. And I quote
Prof Harold J. Leavitt, Kilpatrick Professor Emeritus at the Stanford Graduate
School of Business, “Regardless of other economic trends, technology itself
has no brakes nor an OFF button, so the new world is unlikely either to slow
down or to level off. Information technology has a long way to go before it
comes into full flower, and other world changing technologies are ripening close
behind.”
And by the way, the wine glass thing I talked about is a
project being developed by Mitsubishi Electric Research Labs!!
Mohit Chhabra
maildqindia@cybermedia.co.in
The auther is principal consultant with FiNoble Advisors