Pump Up that Volume

Kent Anderson

loves the chatter of commerce: clerks advising customers, registers ringing up

purchases, mood music over the intercom. When he shops online, he misses all the

hubbub. But as president of Macys.com, Anderson is able to change that. Now,

visitors to his site can click to hear about the latest promotions, listen to an

explanation of electronic gift certificates, or get guidance on how to find just

the right present for a loved one. Sound "keeps the site new and

exciting," Anderson says.

E-commerce doesn’t have to be quiet. Three-fifths of the Web’s top

destinations sport sound, from spoken instructions to quirky noises, according

to researcher Jupiter Media Metrix. Half of these sites dish up music, and 64%

feature voice clips–like America Online’s trademark "You’ve got

mail"–that give information about the company or its products. For Web

merchants who haven’t turned up the volume, here’s some sound advice: As

more users get speedy Net access, they’ll demand ever-richer Web pages,

including audio. "Sound is a wonderful enhancement to e-commerce,"

says analyst TS Kelly of research house Nielsen/Net Ratings.

The Company Store has heard the news. Almost every page features a woman’s

voice explaining products, reminding you to look over your shopping cart before

checking out, or reassuring skittish surfers about privacy policies. The idea,

says marketing manager, Orestes Chinea, is to cut down on the amount of reading

visitors do. The approach is paying off. The new audio capability, added in

November, has contributed to revenues jumping about 15% so far this year

compared with the same period last year, Chinea says.

Helpful hints from a soothing voice aren’t the only means of sounding off.

Voxxy.com, a site for teenage girls, treats visitors to whiz-bang sounds that

help them navigate. You know you’ve found the chat room when you hear a

ringing phone and cocktail party chatter. A heavy guitar riff announces the

"rant" section. A revving car engine signals a browser’s return to

the home page. "The sound on the site really captures your attention,"

says Jennifer Main, a Los Angeles 10th grader who visits Voxxy.com often. Audio

has been a key factor in helping Voxxy.com boost its monthly visitor total to

150,000 in April, up from 70,000 in February, says founder Kristi Kaylor. And

special sound events, such as actress Jennifer Aniston opining on relationships

and romance in a live Web talk show, have increased traffic by 400%.

Nifty noises add muscle to brand-building as well. Check out Twix.com, where

candy was never so audibly cool. Move your mouse over the smiling guy and he

raps the words "chewy caramel" to a techno beat. Scroll to the girl

and the chant changes to "crunchy cookie." "It makes me think

Twix way more than a banner ad would," says Michael Wean, a creative

director for kids’ Web sites and a frequent online shopper. The music mix is

such a draw that unique visitors tripled between June, when sound was added, and

January, says Scott Hudler, Twix brand communications



manager.

There’s one danger: All the clatter can bug some surfers. "I don’t

always want a salesperson interrupting my shopping," says Wynne Schiera, a

tech manager at a Chicago-area children’s library. Sure, she could just turn

down her speakers, but savvy sites let shoppers click off the sound altogether–something

Macy’s does. Given the traffic that sites with sound are attracting,

though,most Netizens seem to like the chatter of commerce as much as Anderson

does.

By Roger O Crockett

in BusinessWeek. Copyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc

True grit

But the very strengths of the Net are also its limitations. Just because

communication is ubiquitous doesn’t mean it’s everything. The last five

years have taught us that in industries such as retailing, manufacturing, and

transportation, physical factors overpower the virtual. E-tailing turns out to

be more about which company is best at moving boxes around rather than who has

glitziest web site or the biggest virtual store on earth. Linking supply chains

over the Net cuts costs and improves response times, but ultimately

manufacturers succeed or fail if they develop good products and figure out how

to produce them at low cost and high quality. Online airline reservation systems

can improve customer convenience and boost the revenue yield per passenger, but

they can’t do anything about long delays caused by runaway congestion, too few

loading gates, antiquated air traffic control systems, and mechanical

difficulties on airplanes.

Even in areas where the Internet can play a central role, the big changes are

not going to come overnight, as investors have found to their chagrin. Some of

the information-intensive industries where the Internet could have its biggest

effect are also the ones where institutional and regulatory barriers are the

highest and vested interests are the strongest. In health care and education,

for example, the possible benefits from widespread use of the web are enormous,

but it’s going to happen in baby steps, over time. What’s more, it’s a

difficult, painful, and slow process to restructure companies and markets.

In the end, it turns out that the speed of Internet time has more to do with

the capital markets than with the pace of technology adoption. The enormous

amounts of venture capital available to startups drove companies to grow far

faster in a few short years than the underlying infrastructure or consumer

demand could support. In fact, the eventual benefits of the web should be

measured over a decade. "People had higher expectations for the next couple

of years than are likely to be realized," says Jeffrey Bezos, CEO of

Amazon.com. "And people have much lower expectations for the next couple of

years than are likely to be realized over the next 10 years." That may help

explain the current confusion about the future of the Internet.

Got Web?

That’s why Internet optimists are refusing to retreat. Analyst Mary Meeker

of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter is urging Net leaders such as Amazon, Yahoo, and

AOL Time Warner to band together in a ‘Got Milk?’-style marketing campaign

promoting the idea that the web is alive and well.

Such webfests, however, aren’t likely to change the minds of burned

investors or restore the once-buoyant expectations for the Net. For instance,

Merrill Lynch analyst Henry Blodget recently reduced his expectations for how

much retail sales will go online to only 5% to 10%, down from 10% to 15% he

envisioned just a few months ago. Even Bradford Koenig, head of the technology

banking practice at Goldman, Sachs, which underwrote many of the hottest Net

IPOs, has lost confidence in pure Internet companies: "The notion of an

Internet company is no longer viable."

But that’s too pessimistic. In fact, part of the problem was that much of

the investment flowed into areas where the Internet is incremental rather than

revolutionary. Take retailing. The hyped consumer dot-coms were supposed to blow

away their brick-and-mortar counterparts. But it turns out that the importance

of information and communication in retailing–the Internet’s forte–is much

smaller than the role of logistics. How much smaller? According to a Softbank

spokeperson, it takes between $15 million and $25 million to build a

top-of-the-line web site. Yet it costs at least $150 million to build a

warehouse and distribution system for a consumer web operation.

All across retailing, the Internet is no longer seen as the 800-pound

gorilla. For example, a year ago, the prevailing wisdom was that old-fashioned

auto dealers were going to be passe. But so far, that hasn’t turned out to be

true. "There hasn’t been the massive shift to buying cars online that we

thought there would be 18 months ago," admits Mark Hogan, president of

e-GM, the auto maker’s online consumer unit.

And there’s growing evidence that shoppers on the Net are supersensitive to

price, according to Austan Goolsbee, an economist at the University of Chicago.

The implication is that any profits e-tailers might make could be short-lived as



competition drives prices down on the web.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is the comparatively limited impact that the Net

may have on manufacturing. To be sure, there is no doubt that e-business has

become an essential part of any manufacturer’s toolkit. The use of the Net can

reduce inventories, take costs out of the supply chain, and eliminate

unnecessary transactions. Collaboration can also speed up product development,

e-marketplaces can lower the cost of components and other supplies, and detailed

info on customers can help customize products to snag bigger orders or even help

determine which customers aren’t cost-effective. At Procter & Gamble, a

web-based information-sharing network makes it easier to collect and evaluate

new product ideas from the company’s far-flung workforce of 110,000 people.

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, manufacturers are still in the business

of making things, not simply moving bits and bytes around. Wheels have to be

bolted onto the car, circuit boards have to be installed in the router–and

that has to be done physically.

To know how this limits the impact of the Net in manufacturing, look at the

example of Cisco, the communications equipment giant, universally regarded as

the poster company for using the web. Some 68% of Cisco’s orders are placed

and fulfilled over the web and 70% of its service calls are resolved online.

Cisco is in the process of linking all of its contract manufacturers and key

suppliers into an advanced web supply-chain management system, dubbed eHub

speeding up the rate at which information about demand is distributed to

suppliers.

According to Cisco’s own calculations, its payoff from its use of the

Internet amounts to $1.4 billion per year, or 7% of sales. If the rest of

manufacturing could even do half as well as Cisco in using the Net, that would

cut an impressive $150 billion from annual manufacturing costs. And yet it is

not the radical reduction in costs that would signal a revolution.

Slow as molasses

While supply chains linked over the Net are more responsive than their

predecessors, they have their limits, too. "The flexibility now being

demanded by customers exceeds the physics of what the supply chain can actually

deliver," says Kevin Burns, chief materials officer for contract

manufacturer Solectron, whose big customers include Cisco and IBM. Now that

companies have switched to web-based models, he notes, they expect to be able to

ramp up or halt production of a product within weeks. But it still takes at

least three months to get a specially designed chip made in a Taiwanese foundry

and around 40 weeks to order an LCD screen.

Obstacles don’t disappear, but it’s easier to see the far-reaching

potential of the Net in industries that are primarily about moving information

rather than goods. Take financial services. In many ways, financial products are

ideally suited to the Internet, since they deal only with information. A recent

Goldman Sachs survey reported that 63% of financial companies had sold their

products through an e-marketplace or a web site, the highest of any industry.

The Internet is already well on its way to transforming financial services.

Online brokers such as E*Trade Group have completely changed how the retail

brokerage business worked. And Net services are now offered by nearly every US

bank and credit union. Bank of America says it’s signing up 130,000 online

customers a month, giving it more than 3 million Net customers. Citigroup has

2.2 million, Wells Fargo, more than 2.5 million.

But as in the case of entertainment, technological and institutional barriers

are slowing down the eventual gains. Consider online bill-paying, widely

anticipated to be the "sticky app" that drives traffic. The benefits

of paying bills on the Net, for both consumers and businesses, could be

enormous. But the technology has proven exceptionally complicated, and it has

hit a wall trying to penetrate the banking industry. Among the problems: Banks

and billers have been unable to agree on how bills should actually appear

online. Still, Bank of America plans to launch a big ad campaign later this year

to promote its bill-paying service.

And then there’s health care. Despite the tangible nature of many medical

services, health care has a very large information component that makes it a

natural for Internet applications. Just shifting claims- processing to the web

could save $20 billion a year, according to the Brookings economists. At a

leading provider of prescription drug care in the US, it costs a matter of cents

to handle a prescription order on the Internet, as opposed to more than $1

through other methods.

Broadband’s promise

But there are enormous institutional barriers. For one, privacy

considerations may slow down the full shift of health-care records to the web.

Moreover, health-insurance companies, doctors, and hospitals are unwilling to

give up control of patient records and insurance payments to a third party. This

reluctance helped frustrate WebMD and Healtheon, which expected to lead a

restructuring of health care by moving many claims, payment, and related

processing services to the Net. WebMD’s efforts to provide real-time payment

capabilities were shunned by insurers and HMOs, who prefer the current

cumbersome process that lets them hold onto the money longer.

There’s also the technology factor. In the long run, realizing the promise

of the Net will depend on the widespread introduction of advanced technologies

such as broadband to the home and high-speed wireless. With broadband

connections over telephone or cable-television lines, consumers will be able to

watch TV-quality video clips of the NCAA basketball tournament or download

crystal-clear music files faster than ever before. What’s more, they’re more

likely to use the Net because they’ll always be connected and won’t have to

spend minutes dialing into the Net each time they want to visit a site.

The problem is that getting the new technologies in place may take longer

than expected. Financially stressed telecom companies are slowing down the roll

out of broadband. The failure of small telecom providers means that subscriber

growth may slow down in second- or third-tier markets. And the prices for

high-speed Internet access may rise.

In the end, the Internet seems likely to revolutionize mainly

communications-intensive industries. If that seems too



limited, remember that almost every breakthrough technology over the last 200
years affected some areas of the economy more than others. The automobile

transformed personal transportation and patterns of housing while little

affecting manufacturing. Electricity radically altered manufacturing practices

and any industry that was power-intensive, while not having an enormous effect

on health care. The Net deserves to be put in such august company.

Michael J Mandel and Robert D Hof with inputs from Linda Himelstein in

Silicon Valley, Dean Foust in Atlanta, Joann Muller in Detroit, and bureau

reports–BusinessWeek