On Leveraging Ideas for the Future

How does an idea evolve? And why is it so crucial to understand
this evolution? Ideas lie at the core of development and growth in every field,
and are not only the prime drivers but they also set the stage for the next
round of development. The converse is also true-but we shall discuss that at a
later stage.

Typically, an idea evolves gradually. It takes root in some need
or pure inventiveness-a case in point being the development of computers. In
1830, Charles Babbage developed his analytical engine and George Boole, in 1848
gave the world Boolean Algebra-the basis for the first-ever computer to be
built. It took a long time for the idea that a machine could do certain
computing tasks for you, to percolate and an even longer time for it to become
feasible. ENIAC, the first computer ever, was a monstrosity. It filled an entire
room, weighed thirty tons, and consumed two hundred kilowatts of power and had
less memory and processing power than a typical cell phone (or even a hand-held
calculator) today.

The second stage is the emergence of inflexion points that
disrupt or force a transformation in the idea's development. Once these
inflexion points have taken root, the idea's further development is usually
rapid. Continuing with the example of computers, the introduction of
microprocessors in 1971 disrupted the idea cycle, making computers smaller and
more usable and thus, the forefathers of modern PCs were created. 1977 saw
another disruption with nascent mobile telephony emerging as the first mobile
phones were developed in Bell Labs. And finally, Tim Berners-Lee developed the
World Wide Web in 1990, taking connectivity to another level altogether.

All of these transformational developments occurred in a
relatively short time and disrupted the natural trajectory of the idea of
computing. And these were only some of the bigger ones. Others, like the
introduction of free web-based e-mail, added their own kinks to the otherwise
straight path taken by this idea and together, gave us modern computing.

After its major disruptions and developments are done with, ie
the transformation phase is complete, the final phase, or dissipation, sets in.
With the disruptive forces spent, the idea enters a steady state. While the idea
is well-entrenched at this stage, there are no developments that cause
exponential growth. In the case of PCs, for instance (although they are mere
babes in computing annals, having been developed in the 1970s), an impressive
level of penetration has been achieved. Today, 1 in every 10 human beings has
one!

The role of identifying the stage of an idea's life cycle
cannot be overstated. It is crucial to recognize which stage of development an
idea has reached, to guide one's next step. Is the idea in its evolutionary
stage? Or has it hit the transformation level? In case of the latter, it is wise
to concentrate resources on research, development and exploration of
possibilities to gain a first-mover advantage later. Has the idea already hit
critical mass and achieved a steady state? If so, it makes sense to take
advantage of it by widening your marketing base rather than trying to develop it
further. If the idea is done with its time (take the Walkman for instance-which
first gave way to the Discman and then the mobile MP3 player only to yield in
turn to the ipod) flogging a dead horse is futile. If you are at the tail end of
an idea's life cycle, either cut your losses or adapt it to the new technology
and keep your ear to the ground for the next big idea.

Remember, as Andy Grove famously said, "only the paranoid
survive".