On Leveraging Ideas for the Future

How does an idea evolve? And why is it so crucial to understand

this evolution? Ideas lie at the core of development and growth in every field,

and are not only the prime drivers but they also set the stage for the next

round of development. The converse is also true-but we shall discuss that at a

later stage.

Typically, an idea evolves gradually. It takes root in some need

or pure inventiveness-a case in point being the development of computers. In

1830, Charles Babbage developed his analytical engine and George Boole, in 1848

gave the world Boolean Algebra-the basis for the first-ever computer to be

built. It took a long time for the idea that a machine could do certain

computing tasks for you, to percolate and an even longer time for it to become

feasible. ENIAC, the first computer ever, was a monstrosity. It filled an entire

room, weighed thirty tons, and consumed two hundred kilowatts of power and had

less memory and processing power than a typical cell phone (or even a hand-held

calculator) today.

The second stage is the emergence of inflexion points that

disrupt or force a transformation in the idea's development. Once these

inflexion points have taken root, the idea's further development is usually

rapid. Continuing with the example of computers, the introduction of

microprocessors in 1971 disrupted the idea cycle, making computers smaller and

more usable and thus, the forefathers of modern PCs were created. 1977 saw

another disruption with nascent mobile telephony emerging as the first mobile

phones were developed in Bell Labs. And finally, Tim Berners-Lee developed the

World Wide Web in 1990, taking connectivity to another level altogether.

All of these transformational developments occurred in a

relatively short time and disrupted the natural trajectory of the idea of

computing. And these were only some of the bigger ones. Others, like the

introduction of free web-based e-mail, added their own kinks to the otherwise

straight path taken by this idea and together, gave us modern computing.

After its major disruptions and developments are done with, ie

the transformation phase is complete, the final phase, or dissipation, sets in.

With the disruptive forces spent, the idea enters a steady state. While the idea

is well-entrenched at this stage, there are no developments that cause

exponential growth. In the case of PCs, for instance (although they are mere

babes in computing annals, having been developed in the 1970s), an impressive

level of penetration has been achieved. Today, 1 in every 10 human beings has

one!

The role of identifying the stage of an idea's life cycle

cannot be overstated. It is crucial to recognize which stage of development an

idea has reached, to guide one's next step. Is the idea in its evolutionary

stage? Or has it hit the transformation level? In case of the latter, it is wise

to concentrate resources on research, development and exploration of

possibilities to gain a first-mover advantage later. Has the idea already hit

critical mass and achieved a steady state? If so, it makes sense to take

advantage of it by widening your marketing base rather than trying to develop it

further. If the idea is done with its time (take the Walkman for instance-which

first gave way to the Discman and then the mobile MP3 player only to yield in

turn to the ipod) flogging a dead horse is futile. If you are at the tail end of

an idea's life cycle, either cut your losses or adapt it to the new technology

and keep your ear to the ground for the next big idea.

Remember, as Andy Grove famously said, "only the paranoid

survive".