Nasscom outlook: India’s tech industry to grow 6.1% to $315 bn in FY26

The overarching message that resonated at this year’s Nasscom Technology & Leadership Forum 2026 was: 2025 was a reset, not a slowdown. Nasscom characterises 2025 as a “year of paradox”. Economic caution did not suppress technology spending. Instead, spending was redirected towards resilience and productivity rather than discretionary expansion. Alongside this, the data point to a more fragmented global environment where technology is increasingly treated as a geopolitical lever, with supply chains reconfigured and sanctions, tariffs and mobility restrictions reshaping delivery models. Within this backdrop, Nasscom positions India as the growth outlier.

Experimentation to deployment: the shift Nasscom is tracking

Nasscom calls 2025 the year of “Operationalised Intelligence”, highlighting a move from experimentation to function-specific deployments and vertical applications. In that context, it estimates AI revenue at upwards of $10–12 billion in FY26.

The data also show a shift in how large providers are organising themselves for this phase. Nasscom notes that around 85% of the top 25 providers operated agentic AI platforms in CY25. It also indicates rising verticalisation and domain-specific solutions, with 35–40% of the top 25 providers doing so in CY25.

The business model is moving towards outcomes

Beyond delivery, Nasscom’s data point to business model change. They highlight a move towards outcome-based SLAs and pricing models, and the emergence of AI services such as legacy modernisation, data engineering and agentic workflows.

The data also suggest capability-building is being accelerated through inorganic moves. Nasscom notes that around 70% of the top 25 providers pursued inorganic capability acquisition for AI-native expertise during CY25.

Winners and how they are redesigning what they sell and how they run

Nasscom’s “winners” definition lays out a shift across segments:

• GCCs shifting focus from scale to strategic ownership (AI-first).
• BPM firms reinventing from RPA towards decision-making (AI + data).
• IT services extending beyond discrete services to solutions and embedding IP through platformisation and productisation.
• ER&D embedding intelligence in products and systems, with lifecycle ownership.
• New segments emerging around AI specialists.

This is presented as a change in offerings and operating models, rather than a single technology shift.

The topline stays resilient: what the numbers say

Nasscom’s revenue estimates indicate India’s tech industry (IT services, BPM, software products, ER&D and hardware) revenue rising from $297 billion in FY25(E) to $315 billion in FY26(E), a 6.1% increase.

Exports are shown as a steady majority with an 83.5% share. Nasscom’s data also point to APAC and the Middle East growing faster, albeit from a smaller base, while the domestic market continues to expand at 7.9% growth.

For exports specifically, the forecast on the shows a rise from $233 billion in FY25(E) to $246 billion in FY26(E), up 5.6% year-on-year.

Jobs still grow, but the labour model is changing

On employment, Nasscom’s data signal measured growth. Total employees rise from 5.82 million in FY25(E) to 5.95 million in FY26(E), reflecting 2.3% growth. Net employee additions are shown at 133k in FY25(E) and 135k in FY26(E).

The larger point, however, is about workforce transition. Nasscom says the tech industry operates among the largest in-service skilling programmes, with over 2 million upskilled in AI, including 200k–300k in advanced AI.

On skills demand, Nasscom lists critical thinking and logical reasoning, learning and adaptability, specialisation in emerging technologies, domain knowledge, leadership skills, and engineering plus emerging tech.

What Nasscom expects next: growth with constraints

On the demand side, the data projects global IT services spending growth of 4.2% in CY26, up from 3.8% in CY25, driven by improving macro stability and stronger investments in scalable deployments.

It also presents enterprise sentiment as cautious optimism: 86% of CXOs expect business demand to remain stable or increase in CY26, and 56% anticipate growth over CY25. Another signal on the data is budget intent: 90% of CXOs indicate increasing AI allocation within digital budgets in CY26.

For the Indian technology services industry, Nasscom positions FY26 and FY27 as “investment and capability building years”, focused on repositioning portfolios for AI-led services and outcome-based models.

At the same time, it flags structural constraints: next-generation skill gaps, low investment in innovation and R&D intensity, pricing compression and heightened competition, and geopolitical volatility and regulatory fragmentation.

India’s value proposition: the three-era shift

Nasscom sums up India’s journey in three eras. The presence era (pre-2015) was delivery-led, winning on efficiency, predictability and execution excellence. The power era (2015–2025) is described as services-led, building enduring advantage through capability depth. The primacy era (2026 onwards) is presented as orchestration-led, shifting from participation to shaping how global technology is reimagined, deployed and governed.

In this model, the capability ladder moves from scale and cost-quality to full-stack and resilience, and then towards agility, IP-led lifecycle ownership, ecosystem density, and trusted and responsible delivery.