Is India About to Become the World's E-commerce Leader: Details about the Explosive Growth of Whopping $325 Billion

According to data from Invest India, the Government e-marketplace (GeM) attained its highest Gross Merchandise Value of $2011 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23

Preeti Anand
New Update
India Growth

India Growth

Online shopping in India is valued at $70 billion and accounts for approximately 7% of the retail sector, indicating enormous growth potential. According to Invest India, India's e-commerce industry is poised for a massive upheaval, with revenues expected to reach $325 billion by 2030. This growth aligns with projections that India's digital economy will get an incredible $800 billion during the same timeframe. Factors such as extensive internet access, affordable internet services, and increasing smartphone users in rural areas will fuel this optimistic trend in the coming years.


Internet availability is increasing across the country 

First and foremost, internet availability is increasing across the country. Invest India emphasises the extraordinary surge in internet penetration, with an estimated 87% of Indian households having an internet connection by 2025. The spike in mobile internet usage, along with a large increase in access time, highlights the critical role of smartphones in boosting e-commerce adoption.

The report underscored the importance of affordability in promoting internet penetration in India. With one gigabyte of data costing around $0.17 (Rs 13.5), a sizable segment of the population is incentivized to participate in online activities. This affordability aspect has caused a jump in mobile data traffic between 2018 and 2023, demonstrating a rising reliance on digital platforms for various purposes.


India has the world's second-largest internet user base

India has the world's second-largest internet user base, with 881 million. With such a strong digital presence, India is expected to be the third-largest online retail market by 2030. This rise is being driven by the rapid expansion of the country's digital economy, predicting a bright future for its e-commerce sector.

The Invest India research offers a persuasive image of India leading the way in global online shopping, with an anticipated 500 million shoppers by 2030. This tremendous growth is due to several fundamental reasons fueling the e-commerce boom. By 2026, over 1.18 billion people in India, or more than 80% of the population, will have access to smartphones. 


This significant growth in smartphone users, combined with increased average data consumption per user, is predicted to boost the digital economy. Furthermore, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has emerged as a major participant in digital commerce, supporting transactions worth $1.5 trillion by 2022.

Factors fueling the e-commerce boom include the increasing number of smartphone users, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) usage in digital transactions, and increased content availability in local languages. These aspects contribute substantially to the continued expansion and evolution of India's e-commerce sector.

The development of local language and mobile-first content is significant, with over 73% of India's internet users choosing Indian languages. This desire has resulted in an estimated 540 million regional language users, contributing to a $53 billion market. This trend highlights the need to accommodate varied linguistic preferences in India's digital world. It emphasises the growing importance of rural-centric e-commerce, predicting that by 2026, a major share of demand will come from tier 2-4 towns and rural areas: government initiatives and the rise of fast commerce fuel this tendency.


Government e-marketplace (GeM) attained its highest Gross Merchandise Value of $2011 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23

According to data from Invest India, the Government e-marketplace (GeM) attained its highest Gross Merchandise Value of $2011 billion in the fiscal year 2022-23. From 2019 to 2026, India's online shopping market is predicted to increase significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% to 88 million in rural India and 15% to 263 million in urban India.

The fast commerce business in India's hyperlocal mobility sector is expected to grow exponentially, reaching USD 5.5 billion by 2025. Swiggy and Zomato are the industry leaders, but companies like Zepto have also made significant inroads. There have been substantial mergers and acquisitions in the e-commerce sector, with companies such as Zomato and PhonePe deliberately positioning themselves for expansion. Government projects such as the Jan Dhan Yojana, BharatNet Project, and GST implementation have played an important role in developing India's digital economy.

There is a clear shift towards rural-centric value e-commerce, with more than 60% of demand projected from tier 2-4 towns and rural India by 2026. Government programs like the National Logistics Policy seek to improve logistical efficiency and cost-effectiveness by streamlining delivery to remote areas.