IT Obsolescence: The Fear of Ageing

When Gordon Moore observed in 1965 that the number of com
ponents on integrated circuits was doubling every year, who could have guessed
that his law would last this long–or the extent to which it would become a
self-fulfilling prophecy? Today, however, for companies across the spectrum–from
hardware to software and telecommunications to any organization or enterprise
leveraging IT or the Web space–Moore’s Law means anticipating rapid leaps in
technology. And experts believe that it is the core business challenge of the
new e-economy.

Talking about obsolescence of technology, Daniel Burrus,
founder of the Burrus Research Association and author of the bestseller
Technotrends, says that earlier when it came to technology, the conventional
wisdom used to be ‘‘if it isn’t broken, why fix it’’. The new
unconventional wisdom of the twenty-first century communication age, however, is
‘‘if it works, it’s obsolete’’.

Perhaps not good news for those who have just invested in
expensive hardware or the latest software. However, try viewing the situation
from a new strategic point. While a twentieth century enterprise or professional
may look at the new technology as more work and conclude that in the end the new
stuff won’t be much different than the old one, players of the e-economy are
aware that the new technology has the power to change their destiny.

The risks of ignoring the latest technology can be high. If
one assumes that what is emerging today will stay in essentially the same form
for several years and one would buy the technology after it has proven itself in
the market, the ability to leverage a competitive advantage has been
significantly lost. ‘‘The decision to buy technology,’’ says Burrus,
‘‘should have little to do with whether a particular piece of software or
hardware is obsolete or whether it soon will be.’’ The assumption, according
to him, should instead be, ‘‘If you can see it, touch it, buy it, sell it–IT
is obsolete.’’

And where does all this lead to, one may ponder. Panic or
chaos in the market perhaps? No, say experts and industry analysts. Obsolescence
of technology is a non-issue today. Of course, the product that you just bought
or are thinking about buying is already obsolete as the company that sold it isn’t
sitting back but testing the next generation product. Neither is the product
that will render the current purchase obsolete just a dream. It is already in
the pipeline and is headed towards you.

So what does one do? According to Sumeet Kapur, CEO, Global
Groupware Solutions, ‘‘In some ways it’s like being at an airport where
one sees airplanes coming in and going out at regular intervals. If one believes
that one has to be on every flight that takes off, one surely is going to feel
very left out. However, the smart businessman knows which flight to board to
reach his destination.’’ Experts advise that instead of worrying about the
impact of fast-changing technology, a smart organization should concentrate on
things that they can affect. ‘‘Analyze what you are doing now with the new
and old technology and try to understand how the emerging technology can be
leveraged to do things that you never thought were possible before,’’
suggests Anjali Jain, VP, client delivery, India, Electronic Data Systems.

Apps first, tech later

The key question to ask about technology in this changing
world should be about what one would ideally like it to do that the older
technology cannot deliver. If you pay cutting-edge price for cutting-edge
technology and all you do is what you did before, obsolescence becomes a
pressing issue. But if you developed cutting-edge applications that allow you to
be beyond your competition then obsolescence quickly becomes a non-issue.

Says Jain, ‘‘Only a small fraction of the capabilities of
a new, breakthrough technology ends up being utilized because of organizations
and their people’s inability to think beyond the obvious applications. It’s
like using Windows for merely word processing, when the software has
capabilities to run several other tasks. So the question is, if you cannot put
your present technology to optimum use, why do you need a new one?"

Experts believe that much of the investments are used for
purposes that were performed just as adequately by the old technology. ‘‘Doing
what you have always done, only quicker and cheaper, represents a false sense of
progress, especially if the competition is also doing the same,’’ quips
Burrus. No wonder, obsolescence is a concern, if the investment is never
recovered and new technologies keep cropping up like mushrooms.

Shopping IT

The best way to decide what technology to buy, according to
experts, is to first have a clear vision of where one wants to be in the next
five years, i.e. to determine one's business requirements for technology. Once
the need for a technology is determined, the IT manager can decide which product
to purchase. At this point, consideration should be made as to where the
products fit on their life-cycle chain. This, according to experts, will also
help organizations determine the viability aspects of the products.

Typically, however, while selecting a high-end or core
software product such as a database or an operating system, the purchaser should
evaluate the product as well as its various versions before deciding to install
it. For some critical software packages a vendor may have two or more versions
under active support. The most innovative may still be in the introduction phase
and quite risky to use in production settings. The older versions may be more
stable but may require a conversion task in the future in order to migrate to
the newer version. If the more innovative version is being described as clearly
the future direction of the product, then the older product will have a limited
life expectancy, since it is in its product phase-out stage. It is not unusual
for the product phase-out period of a highly innovative software product to last
six, twelve or more months before the vendor starts reducing support. This makes
sense since a release of a major software package, like DBMS, often requires a
significant conversion effort (and therefore has a long introduction phase). The
stability of the product and the market acceptance of its customer base drive
the real issue of how long an older product will be supported. A low-end
software product such as a word processor or spreadsheet application may have a
short phase-out period, with the vendor withdrawing support of the product
almost immediately after the release of a newer version.

Even if you are making important hardware purchasing
decisions, it is important to evaluate the significant software involved with
it. A core part of a computer is the operating system and other low-level
software. Such software is often bundled with the hardware. When purchasing a
PC-class system, the purchaser will need to select the specific operating system
version that will run on the PC, since it is purchased as a separate item. For
instance, in case of workstation-class computers from Sun Microsystems, the
Unix-derivative Solaris is bundled with the system. However, Sun offers the
option of running different versions of Solaris on the system.

According to experts, the purchasing of hardware therefore
needs to include both hardware and software considerations. Again, the degree of
innovation of the hardware or core software will dictate the product’s risk
level. If the hardware innovation is evolutionary and runs the same operating
system as older hardware, then there is probably little or no risk in using the
new product. On the other hand, when there is a high degree of innovation or
technology change in the hardware product, then by definition the operating
system will need to be different, since the low-level software that talks to the
hardware would have changed. Naturally then, with any major hardware innovation
there is a degree of risk, which needs to be assessed.

Purchasing innovative products can be a risk also because
problems may be burned into firmware or into microcode and require a hardware
replacement to fix. If a company is to be an early adopter of technology, then
it is advisable to be prepared to fully test and evaluate the new hardware,
prior to deploying it to production systems. As the hardware matures and
customer acceptance grows, the risk automatically gets reduced. Another factor
that determines the viability of any new hardware is the availability of
peripherals and add-in software. These issues, say experts, also determine the
schedule as to when a new product becomes viable.

To sum it up, as Burrus says, the process is the same now as
it was then: identify what needs to be done, even if it is impossible, and look
for a means to accomplish that end using technology. The key is the willingness
to accept what was impossible yesterday may well be possible today. This won’t
happen, though, if new technology is used merely as a means to increase
efficiency.

SHUBHENDU PARTH

in New Delhi