Is it about Gen Alpha and Gen Z?

Pradeep Khanna, who has multiple global roles in the Metaverse/XR ecosystem, looks at the post-ChatGPT Metaverse trends and timelines.

As the below graph shows, Metaverse has trended down ~ 75% over the last 12 months (source data - Google). Did this downward trend have anything to do with launch of ChatGPT on 30 November 2022 or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023?

As obvious from the below graph, Metaverse was already on a downward trend, which got further accentuated (barring a brief spike on 15 Oct 2022) as Generative AI and ChatGPT took over the world. It also brought into focus the difference between Immersive Technologies and AI.

Even though VR and AR (including rebranded MR and XR) have been around for 25+ years, immersive technologies and experiences have remained emerging with large parts of the world’s population still grappling to understand even the difference between VR and AR.

When Facebook rebranded as Meta in October 2021, XR morphed into Metaverse and exploded into our world. Soon, the entire world including cats and dogs wanted to know what a Metaverse was. While there was tremendous curiosity, lots of education was and is still required for the world at large to better understand immersive technologies.

In contrast, AI has been going mainstream for last couple of years. Even the debates around whether AI would take jobs or create higher skill jobs has long abated. What Generative AI and ChatGPT did was to stretch our minds to the power of AI and soon debates involved ethical AI.

The emerging technology world was further jolted by the speed of collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on 10 March 2023. While interest in Generative AI further increased, it accentuated the declining Metaverse trend.

So much so, recently there has been lots of discussion even on how to calculate the number of Daily Active Users (DAU) on metaverse platforms and whether Decentraland and Sandbox are having less than 1000 DAUs.

Anyway, going back to Metaverse, in June 2022 McKinsey forecasted we would spend on average 4 hours in the Metaverse within the next 5 years.

In Aug 2022, Gartner included Metaverse in its emerging technologies hype cycle.

So, is the Metaverse on Death bed or is it yet another hype cycle playing out?

Before answering this question, let’s have a look at which demographic has engaged highest with the Metaverse.

Among all the Metaverse platforms, Roblox has the highest number of Monthly Active Users (MAU) with 200 + Million MAUs. Gen Z (born between 1995 and 2009) and Gen Alpha (born from 2010 onwards) have the highest engagement with Roblox. In fact, 57% of Roblox users are below the age of 16.

A question of course is, when will the Metaverse evolve into a social media platform. Will Roblox be the in demand social media Metaverse or will some of the other popular social media platforms evolve into Metaverse. Some comparative demographics are…

-              73% of Roblox users are less than 24 years with 57% below 16 years

-              61% of Instagram users are 18-34 years

-              71% of Tik Tok users are 18-34 years

-              70% of Facebook users are 18-44 years

Clearly Gen Alpha, being the digital natives, have the highest engagement with Roblox followed by Gen Z. So, will the Metaverse take-up increase when Gen Alpha and Gen Z numbers increase?

So, what will be the short. Medium and long term (Metaverse trends. Being a futurist is a mugs game – however, let’s give it a try…

In the short term (2023-24)

•             Current take-up by Consumer Gaming and Entertainment especially by Gen Z and Gen Alpha further continues

•             Intelligent Immersion takes shape – blending AI with XR. – Does it take off?

•             Digital Twins take up further increases leveraging blend of XR, AI and IoT

•             Apple launches immersive Head Mounted Device – Will it be the next shot in the XR arm?

•             Focus on cybersecurity, safety and ethics

•             Metaverse slow burn continues

•             Focus on Sustainability

In the medium term (2025-29)

•             Gen Z and Gen Alpha numbers keep increasing.

•             Intelligent Immersion takes off

•             Decent Mixed Reality smart glasses at an affordable price point available

•             Multisensory immersion progresses.

•             Discussion intensifies on whether VR or AR will the access points for immersive experiences.

•             Standards and Interoperability discussions progress

•             Increased focus on Cybersecurity, safety and ethics discussions

•             Increased focus on Sustainability

In the long term (2029-40)

•             Total forecast world population (2030) – 8.5 billion

•             Gen Z and Gen Alpha (2030) account for 61% of world’s population

•             Gen Z and Gen Alpha (2030) account for 41% of the workforce

•             Gen Beta (born in 2025 and after) start getting focus

•             Metaverse starts getting traction

•             Cybersecurity, Safety and Ethics get significant traction

•             Sustainability gets significant traction

So, what should be our strategy in the short, medium and long term? More on this in the next article!

Pradeep is CEO of Global Mindset and also Executive Director Asia Pacific, Sydney President & Global Co- Chair Education for the global Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Association. He is also an Advisory Board member of global Metaverse Fashion Council.

By Pradeep Khanna

Pradeep is CEO of Global Mindset and also Executive Director Asia Pacific, Sydney President & Global Co- Chair Education for the global Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Association. He is also an Advisory Board member of global Metaverse Fashion Council.