In the Year of the Recovery…

A

year ago, we’d crossed over into a gloomy, foggy January under the cloud of

war, and I wrote here that our hopes rested on telecom. That tech force went on

to shake India, and connect her. Dataquest’s two IT achiever awardees for

2002, in December, were men from the telecom world–the first time ever.

And if our ICT and Indian businesses and consumers step into this new year

with hope, some of that is riding the telecom revolution. India is wired.

Bandwidth is cheaper. Bharti is making long distance more and more affordable.

Reliance is helping, with the biggest ICT rollout in Indian history, and

"mobility for the masses" at local call rates…

More points for Convergence, and for Competition.

These Cs will drive 2003 technology. I’ll use my laptop on wireless

networks, with 802.11b in Indian hotels and other spots (and maybe outdoors).

And GPRS. And Bluetooth–while I’m still the only user I know of, it will get

laptop users mobile on GPRS and 802.11 networks.

Digital cameras will finally take off in India, with pocket models under Rs

5k on one hand, and compact 3 to 5 megapixel models on the other, even as

digicams find their way into more cellphones.

Our enterprises will deploy Linux, and admit it... even on the desktop. So

will schools and government departments. Pushing PCs below the Rs 15k point,

along with cheap Via chips that will push down Intel’s and AMD’s prices too.

Microsoft will drop prices sharply on India-specific "institutional

OEM" deals for Windows. On the high end of the PC spectrum, the war will be

between Intel’s speedy P4s and AMD’s Clawhammer and its all-new core, the

first 64-bit desktop chip, though it will run 32-bit OS and apps this year.

Biotech will see interest, investment, startups and magazines (including one

from Dataquest publishers Cyber Media).

In the industry, manufacturing will be an organized force again, though at a

twentieth of India’s software exports revenues. ITeS will continue to boom and

drive IT targets and plans for services companies and India’s states–and for

the training industry, even as HR availability becomes a visible barrier for the

first time.

Some mobile tech won’t take off in India or the world. Tablet PCs (too

expensive, no applications). India’s Simputer, ditto. "Converged"

products like PDA-phones. On the mobile service provider side, India’s

cellular operators will bleed from their own price wars. And on the Web, as with

ISPs, you’ll begin to pay–the free rides may be over.

And there’s the great, though gradual, recovery ahead in 2003, after a

terrible 18 months for Indian IT.

By and large, a year of hope.

Prasanto K Roy