How many trillions will India make or lose by 2050?

Hundreds of years back India had the largest GDP in the world and China was at No. 2 position. Then Colonialism and the Industrial revolution happened. Europe, America and Japan raced way ahead and became the largest economies of the world. These ruled till the 2000s. 2010s was the China decade. But things have rapidly changed in the pandemic era. Can the 2020s see India's rise and the 2030s be ours?

Europe, America and Japan have plateaued. China could have ruled till the 2030s at least. But domestic demand has declined. There is a housing crisis. By 2030 it will no longer have the world’s largest working population. (That honour will go to India) In fact China will have a sort of inverted pyramid and have the most senior citizens as a percentage, one of the biggest skews in history thanks to their One Child policy. Post-Covid, the world has serious trust issues with China and is looking to disengage with Supply Chain China.

Asian countries like India, Vietnam and Bangladesh along with Africa will see the greatest growth in the next few decades. Which will be the largest economy in the world in 2050? Most say China. A few say India. Most put India at No. 2 and some even at No. 3. So which will it be? The Digital Economy and India’s ability to integrate tech in its most critical sectors will decide that.

Our biggest setback remains the low adoption of AgriTech. We are still a predominantly rural economy. But the ROI that our farmers get for the efforts they put in is very less. In developed countries, a fraction of farmers give a far bigger output. Agricultural reforms without AgriTech will be meaningless. Another lagging area is R&D and patents. Our educational and research institutes still have a long way to go before we can be world beaters.

We got it right in the startup scene in 2021. The government is coming out with the correct schemes related to electronics, semiconductors, software and hardware. But our ability to implement all the emerging technologies in each and every industry and sector will be the key difference between our being No. 1 in the world (and reclaiming the centuries-old status) and being No. 3. The difference between the two will be trillions of dollars.

The pandemic era forced techceleration upon India and the world. The key for our GDP to enter the fast track of growth will depend on whether we can keep the momentum going.