Everyone
can see the fire burning, expertise lies in smelling the smoke. Translate that
into the business world and it sounds similar to–‘I should have bought the
Infosys stock in 1995’ versus ‘I bought the Infosys stock in 1995’!
Needless to say the future depends a lot on the ability to spot emerging trends
and translate them into business opportunities.
Sometimes
it makes sense to take the leadership position and start a trend where a gap
exists and change the paradigm altogether! Based on what I see in the market
today and on some of the gaps and emerging trends–GeT, here is my betting
list.
Thin client is no more thin
Have you noticed
how bloated the so-called ‘thin client’ has lately become? The browser
itself takes more than 25Mb and this does not include helper apps or other
plug-ins that you may have to install. The browser is good enough for reading
documents or sharing text-based information, but it severely limits the kind of
user experience you can provide. On top of that, developing applications rich in
functionality to run within the browser is not only a pain in the neck but is
overly restrictive.
So, the time has come to ‘think
outside the browser’! In fact, the trend had already started with helper apps,
like RealAudio. Now it makes a lot of sense to provide ‘software agents’ to
users so that they can download and configure for their own use rather than
force the user to go to your website every time to perform a function. One of
the upsides of ‘software agents’ would be that the user is less likely to
‘click away’ to another site–so there is no question of losing eyeballs.
The ‘software agent’ will use
the power of web technology for data collection and transactions and the power
of the PC for delivering excellent user interface. For example, today one
usually goes to a couple of different sites or ‘price comparison sites’,
like ‘mySimon.com or pricewatch.com’ to find out where one can get the best
deal. Then one may end up going to multiple sites to get the cheapest price on
each of the items wanted or end up buying everything from one site even though
one will be paying a few extra just for the sake of convenience.
agent’ that resides on my PC. All I have to do is to start up this application
and set up my decision factors to decide if I had to perform all these tasks by
myself. So, I could define rules like–‘Buy books and CDs from the site that
is cheaper’. The ‘agent’ will work on its own without any intervention
from my side and I can go off and do something better with my time. The power of
the web will be realized when the software starts working for me rather than I
working with the software.
Merging ecommerce with old commerce
You may know of
someone who goes to the local bookshop and browses the aisles to see which books
she likes and then comes home and orders them over the web from the same shop’s
website! It makes a lot of sense to do that because now you have the best of
both worlds–you can sample the books in person and get the rock-bottom price
too.
Sooner or later this is where a
paradigm shift will happen. Old commerce will start taking advantage of new
commerce. For example, you could walk into the local bookstore and when you have
browsed the aisles you walk up to a kiosk and order the same book from the store’s
website for less. Or, when you walk up to the cash register the clerk asks you–‘would
you like to order them through our web store or would you like to buy them now?’
You may decide to buy one or two at that time and order the rest via the web and
pay for all of them then and there. That way the store does not lose a customer
and you do not have to send your credit card information over the web along with
having other payment options, like cash. A win-win situation for everyone except
for the competitors who are stuck in e-space.
Portals emerging everywhere
Now thatecommerce is not the leading edge and b2B
(business-to-business) commerce has become an old term, where does one go next?
Current trends belong to information or content management and portals in every
shape and form. A lot of companies have already started positioning themselves
as leaders in ‘corporate portals’, ‘information portals’ or ‘personal
portals’. If this idea is combined with what I mentioned earlier–software
agents–one will finally be able to use the web. Imagine your desktop being
your portal, where you have search agents, shopping agents and local or
international news scroll based on your configured parameters. Microsoft started
with the idea of the active desktop but did not take it far enough. If we can
download, for free, a personal portal from Yahoo or Excite or Alta Vista or a
third party that combines information, search, ecommerce, messaging and
collaboration–that would truly make the underlying OS irrelevant. Why do I
have to start the browser or another application every time I need to do any of
these functions? The desktop is going to become the point of convergence for all
of the power that the web has to provide. This becomes especially easier with
‘always on’ connections like DSL or cable modem.
Global trade with e-currency
Today, majority What needs to emerge is a common
of ecommerce is targeted at North America. Even if many organizations would like
to expand beyond, one of the prohibitive problems–the very reason for doing
commerce–is money, as not all currencies are convertible. On top of that, many
people do not use credit cards or will not want to enter the credit card
information into a website.
e-currency. This is easier said than done, as there will be legislative and
political hurdles that will have to be crossed. Consider there is only an e-card
that is accepted on the net. You buy this card which is pre-paid in local
currency and are allocated ‘e-points’ for that amount. Ecommerce sites that
honor this e-card will not only show the price in a particular currency but also
in e-points. That way all you have to do is make sure you bought enough points
to cover your purchases and then re-charge the card only when you need to
purchase something.
Endless possibilities
Possibilities are
endless and I have highlighted some of the trends that will emerge on the web
and how it will be assimilated into people’s lives. Organizations and people
who are courageous enough to think fast and outside of the box–not to mention
the browser–are going to be winners. Then one can truly say–’the web has
arrived
Rajeev Nanda