Gadi Bula Rahi Hai?

In case you havent noticed, theres a renewed interest in
railways the world over. Heres a sampling: China is spending $50 bn to set up
the worlds biggest high-speed rail network; the US will plonk about $13 bn over
the next five years to boost its railroads; Japan has plans to sink $82 bn on a
magnetic levitation (maglev) track linking Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka; and huge
outlays are being tabled at parliaments in Venezuela, Germany, Britain,
Indonesia, Australia, Iran, and of course, India. Next month, a feasibility
study for a new railway linking Sudan, Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia will begin.

Before we get to India, lets get a reality check. Given the
rising price of oil and fossil fuels, and the increasing focus on Green, rail
travel is increasingly being seen as the cleanest, greenest and safest way to
travel both short and long distances. Rail resurgence began in China, but the
hype is in America. In the 1950s, under the US President Dwight Eisenhower,
thousands of miles of freeways were built that linked much of the US and
romanticized car travel while relegating rail travel to third class status.

Will the 2010s be an era of the romantic railroad? "We want a
new system of high-speed rail in America that will be faster, cheaper and easier
than building more freeways or adding to an already over-burdened aviation
system," President Obama said in mid April. "It will be the most sweeping
investment in our infrastructure since President Eisenhower built the
Inter-state Highway System in the 1950s." One of the first claimants to federal
funds will be California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. He has a $30 bn plan
to run bullet trains from Los Angeles to San Francisco in two hours.

The big tech bets on rail are on China. In 2002, the first
high-speed maglev railway in the world was constructed by Germany based
Transrapid, linking downtown Shanghai to Pudong Airport. The 30 km run is
completed in eight minutes at an average speed of 430 kmph; the highest speed
achieved was 501 kmph. China is also planning to build a factory in Nanhui to
manufacture maglev trains.

Where does ICT come in? Everywhere. Given the complexity
involved in ultra high-speed trains, even a minute malfunctionsuch as a drop in
voltage on a maglev trackcould be disastrous if not managed. It is humanly
impossible to manage or control the entire system without sophisticated
electronics, controls, software, tactile feedback, and superfast data transfer
speeds with zero error tolerance.

The leader of the IT pack is Big Blue. It won a crucial
software deal for Chinas high-speed train network in Guangdong province. And in
June 2009, IBM opened its first global rail innovation center in Beijing. That
brings together industry leaders, researchers and universities for next-gen rail
systems and will tackle issues such as passenger reservations, asset utilization
and productivity, surveillance of tracks and infrastructure, scheduling,
integrated fare management, and environmentally efficient operations.

The moot point is whether maglev is value for money. Not
quite. The Shanghai maglev cost $1.2 bn to build, which is about $40 mn/km. It
carries 8,000 passengers a day at $6.25 per ride. Chinas aim? To limit future
cost of maglev rail construction to under $25 mn/km. As for Japan, the proposed
Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka line will cost $100 mn/km mainly because the route runs
through mountains where long tunnels need to be dug. The future? Japan plans to
build low-speed maglevs running at 100 kmph that cost less and emit neither
noise nor carbon.

The key question: Where does India stand? After all, Indias
rail network is among the largest in the world. It covers 7,000 stations across
64,000 km of rail with annual revenues of $19 bn. The fastest train is the
Rajdhani which can go up to 150 kmph. Will the maglev touch India? In 2005, a
group of US based NRIs presented a proposal to the then Railway Minister, Lalu
Prasad Yadav for a maglev link that would whisk passengers from Mumbai to Delhi
in three hours. The cost? $30 bn. The Maharashtra government has approved a
feasibility study for a maglev link between Mumbai and Nagpur, about 1,000 km
away.

Maglev may take some time to come to India. Given time,
technology and economies of scale, the bets are that Indians can still get a
chance to travel on maglev trains in India during this generation.