Enterprise Wallets in 2026: What’s the new Bubble Tea or Bubble this time?

Austrian Architect Victor Gruen may have repented his mistake after many years but when he designed shopping mall layouts, sensory cues, no windows, great lightning, maze-like spaces and comfortable interiors with the idea of making shoppers forget the world outside them- he did hit the right aisle. Shopping spaces can be designed into a cocoon. Thanks to the Gruen Effect. But in the IT shopping castles, one cannot afford to be totally forgetful, deaf and unconscious to what’s actually happening outside in reality. It is ok to walk in for a packet of bread and come out with a new variety of butter along with it. But to forget bread altogether or to add huge milkshake boxes when you are lactose-intolerant- that’s a stretch. Something that is a dangerous, but easy, mistake to make when there is so much hype, noise, glitter, pressure and disillusionment all around your cart. Is that what enterprises are mindful of in 2026? Would they spend just to keep the lights on (the bread) or try some modernisation (the new butter flavour) or be bold enough to try something really disruptive and new (that Matcha shelf)? And more importantly, are they going to sip more of the Boba (AI) that the world is intoxicated with? Let’s follow the cart.

Repeat or Return or Reincarnate?

The 2026 IT budgets could go anywhere across run, change, and innovate. Whether CIOs would be keeping the lights on, or modernising core systems, or investing in new disruptive capabilities – is something that depends on the vertical, the enterprise and the leadership’s courage-meter too.

CIOs in 2026 are expected to manage larger IT budgets, reflecting increased investment in digital transformation, AI integration, and cybersecurity – augurs Biswajeet Mahapatra, Principal Analyst at Forrester. However, this financial expansion, as he spells out, comes with heightened scrutiny, complex vendor landscapes, and pressure to deliver measurable outcomes. “The shift from growth-centric strategies to resilience and efficiency means CIOs must navigate tighter governance, evolving tech stacks, and talent shortages, making budgeting a more strategic and stressful exercise.”

CIOs are grappling with the challenge of aligning technology investments with business value amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

– Biswajeet Mahapatra, Principal Analyst at Forrester

Perhaps that’s why most CIOs would not give in to the temptation of picking new stuff – at least, not without balancing the cart well.

Ask Bhoopendra Solanki, CIO, Sakra World Hospital and he gives a glimpse of his formula of striking the ‘balance’. “As a best practice we have divided IT budgeted in four segments- like to sustain current IT setup, modernising of infrastructure, enchantment of Cybersecurity posture, AI capabilities in Healthcare to enhance the process. So next year we are going to give more focus on Cybersecurity & AI Capabilities. The budget consideration will be more for the year 2026 as compared to previous years.”

Next year we are going to give more focus on Cybersecurity & AI Capabilities.

– Bhoopendra Solanki, CIO, Sakra World Hospital

Purvi Shah, CIO from the Real Estate industry seconds the idea of balance. “In 2026, IT budgets will be shaped by a balance of resilience, modernisation, and value creation. The ‘run’ layer will continue to emphasise cost optimisation, cybersecurity readiness, and cloud governance, ensuring business continuity in a more regulated and AI-integrated ecosystem.” However, she expects that the larger thrust will move toward the ‘change’ and innovate’ spectrum — modernising core systems to become cloud-native, integrating data platforms for real-time intelligence, and embedding automation across business functions.

The ‘run’ layer will continue but the larger thrust will move toward the ‘change’ and innovate’.

– Purvi Shah, CIO from the Real Estate industry

What is hard to miss here is that enterprises will look at all of it in a cohesive way – without getting lost in individual aisles.

For most Indian enterprises, the total IT spend is not expanding dramatically, reveals Ravi Peddhibhotla– Chief Digital Officer at TVS Electronics. “We’re looking at maybe five to seven growth at best. So, the question isn’t whether AI, cloud, or analytics will grow. It’s which ones will earn their share of that limited pie.”

It’s not about how much we spend, but how intelligently we spend it.

–  Ravi Peddhibhotla, CDO at TVS Electronics

The era of siloed technology spending is ending, Arijit Bonnerjee, Senior Vice President & Head – India Region, Tata Communications sees the buckets through a bigger prism. “Enterprises are learning that innovation without a strong foundation doesn’t scale. You can’t unlock the potential of AI or other transformative technologies if your core systems aren’t agile enough to support them.”

Contrary to the notion of being deprioritised, hygiene areas such as cybersecurity and skilling will, in fact, move further up the enterprise agenda.

– Arijit Bonnerjee, Tata Communications

The old will be balanced well with the new, hence, it seems.

It’s going to be both continue and new this year hints Sumedha Varma, Head SAP Concur Indian Sub-Continent & Finance and Spend Leader Corporates as well. “As we move into 2026, Indian enterprises are demonstrating remarkable agility - sustaining business resilience while accelerating bold investments in modernisation and innovation. Technology priorities are clearly shifting toward AI-driven automation, cloud transformation, and data intelligence, as organisations look to make operations smarter, more efficient, and responsive to change.”

Enterprises are now prioritising connected, intelligent platforms with rich partner ecosystems that unify data and decision-making.

– Sumedha Varma, SAP Concur

We’re seeing stronger alignment between foundational system upgrades and disruptive innovation — because one feeds the other, adds Bonnerjee. “Core modernisation is no longer optional; it’s the bridge between keeping the lights on and driving breakthrough value.”

Also, hygiene areas like cybersecurity will not be on a back-burner- at least, not in all the cases. Investment is non-negotiable and projected to grow by double digits in 2026, indicates Deepak Dastrala, Partner & CTO, Intellect AI. “This increase directly responds to securing the new, complex attack surfaces created by the widespread adoption of AI and cloud technologies.”

AI Spending won’t cool but will shift toward disciplined, ROI-focused initiatives.

– Deepak Dastrala, Partner & CTO, Intellect AI

As to the ‘lighthouse spending zones’, Dastrala cites how Quantum computing is reaching commercial relevance with 26 per cent CAGR growth, as financial services (JPMorgan, Bank of Canada) explore portfolio optimisation and pharmaceuticals accelerate drug discovery. He also marks Physical AI and humanoid robotics and Decentralised architectures and DAOs in this bracket. “Enterprises are tokenising real-world assets like real estate for 24/7 global markets, powered by stablecoins projected to exceed USD 500 billion by 2026.”

Cash or Card?

Interestingly, the industry is also going through a change in packaging formats. From sachets to huge yearly cartons to take-aways with straws – everything is available today. We could see pricing models (SaaS, consumption-based, outcome-based) evolving in 2026 – and a lot.

Solanki reckons these as good and additional options to the market. “The organisation can take the decision based on their business nature and cash flow. Earlier, only the capex model was there to set up the IT on-premise but now we have multiple options to run the IT operations.”

Pricing models will move beyond SaaS to outcome-based frameworks, where enterprises will pay for tangible business results such as faster hiring, improved retention, or workforce agility, rather than for feature access, reasons Nikhilesh Pulugundla, Director of Enterprise Sales, India – Phenom.

Everyone suddenly ‘gets AI’. Industry-specific AI will see accelerated adoption. These lighthouse investments will define the winners in the next phase.

– Nikhilesh Pulugundla, India – Phenom

This marks a shift from transactional software engagements to success-based partnerships, where the focus is on co-owning business impact, he explains. “The future of enterprise pricing is not about consumption, it’s about shared success, agility, and outcome accountability. With AI’s ability to quantify those outcomes in real time, the shift from subscription to success-based pricing will be a tangible value.”

But the big question strolls like a pink elephant in the IT mall- even in 2026. In fact more so.

AI- A Bubble-wrap everyone loves to pop

AI is in the air. It’s glossy. It’s new. It’s what they call the future of IT. But it’s not that easy to shake off that question in 2026. Would AI be another Dotcom bubble-like fad? Are spends on GenAI etc. going to fade ahead?

Yes, many enterprises are increasingly cautious about the AI hype, avers Mahapatra. They are drawing parallels to the dotcom bubble due to inflated valuations, unrealistic expectations, and a surge in startups with unproven business models, he observes. “While AI holds transformative potential, the rush to adopt it without clear ROI or scalable success stories has led to skepticism, especially as some early implementations fail to deliver promised efficiencies or insights.”

Ankush Sabharwal, Founder of BharatGPT.ai & CoRover.ai, on the other hand, does not see AI/Gen AI as a bubble that will burst. Instead, it will continue to expand, driven by its necessity across every sector, he argues. “The global economy, of around USD100 trillion, will likely be significantly transformed by AI. India can play a major role in applying AI both domestically and globally. I’m optimistic about AI’s potential to make lives better and help businesses optimise in all aspects, from production to sales. By leveraging AI, businesses can focus on core areas like R&D while outsourcing auxiliary services to AI systems.”

I hope India’s budget will lean towards democratising AI, making it more accessible and beneficial for all.

– Ankush Sabharwal, Founder of BharatGPT.ai & CoRover.ai

Dastrala dissects the comparison from a financial lens. “While 95 per cent of enterprises have seen zero financial return on GenAI investments and 46 per cent of global Q3 2025 VC funding went to AI startups at inflated valuations - fundamental differences distinguish this from the dot-com era.”

“Unlike the speculative 1990s, AI demonstrates tangible adoption with real profitability. The high failure rate reflects enterprise unreadiness, inadequate infrastructure, talent shortages, and poor governance, not AI’s limitations. Spending won’t cool but will shift toward disciplined, ROI-focused initiatives. Global AI investment is projected to reach nearly USD 2 trillion by 2026, with emphasis on foundational investments delivering tangible business value.”

Solanki offers a different opinion on AI- one which does not see AI as something just out of the oven. “Actually AI started decades ago (like drug to drug interactions in medication prescription) but in the recent past it evolved rapidly. There is no doubt that IT is driving the business in each sector now. With the help of AI in any process you can execute that particular task or process so quickly and more accurately which enables you to accomplish more tasks as compared to manual processes.” So he anoints AI as a good tool for rapid growth with less manpower efforts.

Having worked on initiatives around data governance, automation, and cloud modernisation, I’ve seen that AI success depends on strong digital foundations — quality data, secured infrastructure, and process maturity, shares Shah. “Spending may rationalise in the short term, but it won’t cool down. Instead, it will shift toward AI-powered analytics, predictive operations, and intelligent process automation that deliver measurable impact on efficiency, experience, and decision intelligence. In essence, AI will become a strategic layer of enterprise transformation, not a temporary wave.”

At SAP Concur, we’re seeing growing interest in agentic AI and generative AI applications that simplify employee experiences, strengthen compliance, and drive measurable productivity gains, shares Varma.

AI/Agentic AI as a category will see the most aggressive budget increase, echoes Dastrala. “AI spending in India is set to grow twice as fast as overall digital technology spending, with investments shifting from pilots to production-grade multi-agent systems.”

The way Shah lays it out, AI is not a bubble — it’s an evolutionary leap — but organisations are learning to move from experimentation to value realisation. “Much like the early internet era, initial enthusiasm has led to a proliferation of pilots and proofs-of-concept. The next phase, however, will focus on ROI-driven adoption, where spending will consolidate around clear use cases that drive measurable business outcomes — such as predictive analytics, intelligent automation, and customer personalisation.”

Pulugundla from Phenom, that is an applied AI company, however expects enterprises to prioritise AI-driven automation, cloud modernisation, and applied AI platforms in 2026. “The shift we see will be from incremental digitisation to intelligent orchestration, where AI powers every workflow, personalises experiences, and enhances workforce productivity that evolves with the business context.”

As Mahapatra reminds, though, despite widespread enthusiasm, only a small percentage of organisations have successfully scaled AI, and concerns are growing about overinvestment driven by fear of missing out. “Industry leaders warn that the current excitement may be masking fundamental challenges such as data quality, governance, and integration complexity. This has led some enterprises to temper their AI ambitions, focusing instead on pragmatic use cases and long-term value rather than chasing hype.”

As a CDO, my job is to translate technology hype into predictable business outcomes, Peddhibhotla says - as simply as that. “I’m bullish on AI in principle. I even count on AGI as the single most important long-term goal for humanity. But I’m also pragmatic. In the short term, our budgets must reward what works today, not what might work someday.”

If I take a `10 crore IT TCO as reference, my stance is simple, Peddhibhotla gives a peek into his calculator. “No more than `50 lakhs for GenAI overall in the coming year. And of that, not more than `25 lakhs unless we can see tangible ROI within three months of deployment.”

And that’s not hesitation, it’s discipline Peddhibhotla underlines it with some reality-ink. “Enterprise AI is still expensive to build and operate. Opex patterns are unclear. Skilled prompt engineers, model evaluators, and integration architects are scarce. The real cost isn’t just licensing. It’s learning.”

Everyone suddenly ‘gets AI’. The difference this time is that AI isn’t a product; it’s an intelligence layer reshaping how businesses operate. The enterprises that win won’t be the ones that adopt AI the fastest, but those that embed it meaningfully - linking it to decisions, experiences, and measurable outcomes. The hype will fade; the impact will endure, captures Pulugundla.

The excitement around what’s possible with AI will be replaced by the reality of its everyday applications.

AI isn’t another Dot-com bubble waiting to burst, but the hype cycle will expose who’s creating real value versus noise. We’re seeing the same rush that hit the internet era, he foretells.

Check the Fridge- And the Garbage Bag once

AI or something else; the best test to see if one is shopping recklessly or smartly is the milk that has gone bad (or not) inside the fridge and the expiry labels on stuff you throw inside the dustbin. IT has had its own metrics. It might add new ones this year but the barometer stays pretty much the same. Spend less, spend more – doesn’t matter. Just count it in the calories you add back home – and whether they are good ones or bad ones.

Solanki calls a spade a spade here – specially if it is a broken one. “We will never improve IT ROI until we learn to identify and prove business value first. Too often, IT teams force projects to completion without considering what the business return will be. Significant money and resources are poured into projects that don’t ultimately serve business goals.”

Shah feels that in 2026 the focus will be on measurable outcomes — faster time to market, reduced downtime, and stronger digital trust — while maintaining financial discipline.

“CIOs are now evaluating technology outcomes through metrics like process efficiency gains, automation-led productivity, employee experience, and digital resilience — not just capital savings or uptime percentages. The focus is on how technology contributes to business agility, customer satisfaction, and decision velocity.”

Varma, too, observes that direction while adding that the trajectory ahead is clear. “Technology investments are becoming more measurable, sustainable, and human-centric. AI and automation are not peripheral enablers anymore they’re embedded in core processes, simplifying experiences and delivering tangible ROI through better insight.”

Tech leaders will be tasked with rescuing failed AI deployments, mapping IT assets against global instability.

Mahapatra sees the fog that’s coming ahead. “The rise of FinOps, composable architectures, and cloud cost optimisation reflects a broader need to control spending while enabling innovation. This dual mandate—driving transformation while maintaining fiscal discipline—is creating a paradox where more money does not necessarily mean more freedom, but rather more accountability and complexity.”

A good example to see this complexity is where, and why, enterprises tighten or loosen their purse-strings. Where I’m willing to accelerate is where AI augments personal productivity. Because these can deliver value fast and at low marginal cost, Peddhibhotla opines. “Even a modest free-tier or low-cost AI assistants, can solve half of an employee’s routine productivity gaps without a single rupee of enterprise license spend. So, 2026 is about what I call ‘conservative acceleration’. Push hard where the payback cycle is short, pause where the integration complexity is high.

In my own experience leading IT modernisation and automation programs, success has been measured not only by optimised costs but by reduced incident response times, faster service delivery through ITSM automation, and stronger cybersecurity posture through XDR and MDM deployments, shares Shah.

But when it comes to assessing the real value of any investment, IT needs to stop thinking of its work as a project and instead build products, Solanki stresses. “Projects are one-time efforts. Products receive continuous improvement long after their initial introduction. That distinction can help you uncover new ROI for IT.”

Turns out that tech spends this year would be about balancing what ‘has been’ with ‘what’s coming’. And they will be carefully poured based on a different kind of metric mindset- getting more strategic, more about deep business outcomes than mere technical or financial numbers and cognizant of the complexity that CIOs face today. Even AI will be shopped with a solid outcome-appetite and not with glazed eyes.

So whether it is new AI or old enterprise software or security alarms- it would help to touch, mould, embrace and adapt the technology in your hands, as per your space. Not just because it’s screaming loudly on some neon-lit shelf. The stuff you touch and hold in your own hands is harder to let go or mess up with. Isn’t that’s what the Ikea Effect is all about? 

pratimah@cybermedia.co.in