Why are chip giants going silent? Marvell, Samsung freeze forecasts amid tariff turmoil

As the deadline for public comments on the U.S. Section 232 semiconductor probe approaches, anxiety is mounting across the chip industry. The looming tariff decisions have cast a shadow over peak earnings season, with tech giants hesitant to issue clear forecasts amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.

This is highly unusual, given that financial forecasts are typically one of the most vital indicators of a company’s direction and strategy. With rumored tariff rates between 25% and 100%, chipmakers are finding it hard to predict their outlook—especially for the second half of 2025.

Marvell is the latest chipmaker to hit pause, postponing its June 2025 investor day to 2026 amid global trade tensions, and a “dynamic macroeconomic environment,” the company said in a press release.

Trade turmoil clouds chipmakers: MediaTek and Qualcomm
A week ago, MediaTek projected Q2 sales between TWD147.2 billion and TWD159.4 billion, a 4% drop to 4% growth sequentially. Due to U.S. tariff uncertainty, the company decided not to issue a full-year outlook, as per Reuters.

Citing CEO Rick Tsai, the report suggests that though MediaTek expects the first half looks “reasonably positive,” the second half is clouded by trade risks.

According to RCR Wireless News, Tsai noted that MediaTek’s direct exposure to the U.S. makes up about 10% of its total revenue, so the potential impact is limited. However, the bigger risks may come from the company’s reliance on consumer electronics, like TVs and home devices, the report adds.

Meanwhile, EETimes raised similar concerns about Qualcomm, highlighting that tariffs could impact demand for Qualcomm-powered devices, particularly smartphones made in China. With up to 66% of its sales linked to China, Qualcomm is highly exposed to trade tensions, the report implies.

Notably, Commercial Times indicates that the new tariffs may be based on the “wafer-out” location, essentially where the chips are actually made, which could significantly disrupt the chip sector.

Semiconductor giants amid struggles: Intel and Samsung
Looming chip tariffs are clouding even tech giants. Samsung posted a slight Q1 profit rise—boosted by tariff-driven demand for smartphones and commodity chips—but reportedly dropped Q2 guidance, as per Reuters.

The report suggests that Samsung stated that Q2 performance remains uncertain due to rising external risks, including tariff concerns and a slowing economy.

Meanwhile, Sisa Journal and Asia Business Daily also points out that Samsung and SK hynix manufacture key memory semiconductors—including NAND and DRAM—in China, making them vulnerable if tariffs kick in. According to Sisa Journal, Samsung’s Xi’an plant and SK hynix’s Dalian plant account for roughly 40% and 29% of their NAND output, respectively.

On the other hand, Intel noted earlier that fears of tariffs led customers to stockpile chips, boosting Q1 sales. However, Reuters, citing CFO David Zinsner, suggests that uncertain trade policies and regulatory risks raise the chance of an economic slowdown, making it harder to forecast its performance for the second quarter and the year.

For now, Intel has lowered its 2025 capital expenditure target to $18 billion, down from $20 billion. For the June quarter, it expects revenue between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, falling short of analysts’ average estimate of $12.82 billion, as per Reuters.

With chip tariffs looming, TSMC stands out as one of the few semiconductor giants sticking to its guns—reaffirming that 2025 revenue will grow by nearly the mid-20% range in U.S. dollar terms.

However, amid a surging New Taiwan Dollar, TSMC has reportedly asked suppliers to cut costs and submit revised quotes by month’s end, according to TechNews.

In a climate of mounting uncertainty, even the strongest players are treading carefully. As global trade tensions intensify, the chip world may need to navigate not just silicon cycles, but full-blown geopolitical shockwaves. Will more chipmakers stop offering future guidance? That may all depend on Trump’s next move.

Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.