Tesla reportedly halts Optimus production; tech bottlenecks signal turning point for humanoid robot industry

Recent reports from China’s supply chain indicate that Tesla may be halting production of its humanoid robot, Optimus. TrendForce reports that Tesla currently faces two major challenges: limited battery life and difficulties with hardware-software integration.

While improvements in motion planning and energy optimization through AI could help address battery performance, fundamental bottlenecks remain—particularly in the efficiency of core hardware components, such as joint motors and transmission systems. 

Additionally, reports of payload issues with Optimus’ dexterous hand point to a complex integration of precision mechanics, miniature actuators, and AI-driven control systems that also require sophisticated human behavior simulation that demand longer development cycles.

In its April report on humanoid robots, TrendForce noted that while several leading companies have announced production plans for 2025 and 2026, failure to finalize product specifications by mid-year could jeopardize mass production timelines. 

Given the current situation, if Tesla intends to continue the Optimus program, it will need not only to refine its technology and seek new suppliers for dexterous hand modules, but also to consider adjusting the robot’s design or application. Potential shifts could include focusing on the execution of household tasks or adopting a strategy similar to Agility Robotics by reducing the degrees of freedom in the robot’s hands to strike a balance between design complexity and practical functionality.

TrendForce believes that while the reported production pause has drawn market attention, it is unlikely to significantly impact the overall humanoid robot industry. On the contrary, it may offer companies an opportunity to revisit design choices and accelerate real-world implementation. Since the design of humanoid robots is often driven by specific use-case requirements, even Tesla, with its advantages in funding, data, and hardware integration, has struggled to meet its originally planned application goals. 

This highlights the gap between design logic and real-world conditions, a challenge that other manufacturers are also expected to face. As a result, the industry’s next phase of competition will likely shift toward system integration capabilities and demonstrated performance in real-world applications.

The impact of a production halt on Taiwanese suppliers is minimal. Tesla’s humanoid robot development has largely been in-house, with key components such as motors, sensors, and control modules primarily sourced from US-based or proprietary solutions, limiting Taiwanese involvement. Furthermore, Optimus and similar humanoid robots are still in the development and field-testing stages, far from entering mass production or commercial-scale development.

Even if Tesla sticks to its previous production targets—5,000 units in 2025 and 50,000 units in 2026—initial production will remain limited, contributing modestly to supplier revenue. Given this context, the reported production pause is not expected to materially impact Taiwan’s component supply chain, and suppliers are unlikely to need to adjust resource allocation or production strategies in the short term.

-- Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.