Tariffs on semiconductors? Investment shifts and global geopolitical tensions

Amid escalating U.S. tariffs and intensifying geopolitical tensions, Liftr Insights, a leading provider of alternative data analytics for the cloud, AI, and semiconductor industry, has created a tariff report detailing how trade policies are reshaping global supply chains and investment strategies in the semiconductor sector.

Financial services repricing risk
U.S. tariffs are forcing financial institutions to recalibrate risk models for semiconductor firms. Companies with diversified supply chains and domestic fabs are commanding premium valuations, while those exposed to tariffed regions face margin compression and capital flight. Liftr Insights data supports short- and long-term investing strategies so financial services can more accurately recalibrate their risk models due to tariffs.

"Our alternative data shows a clear bifurcation in semiconductor investment flows. Tariffs are no longer just a trade tool—they're a valuation driver," says Tab Schadt, CEO of Liftr Insights. "Investors need to understand the geopolitical chessboard to navigate the next wave of semiconductor growth."

Tariff impact by regions
Liftr Insights data can show the early market indicators caused by tariffs by region.

China: Faces dual pressure from U.S. tariffs and its own export restrictions on critical chipmaking materials.
Taiwan and South Korea: Indirectly impacted due to their central roles in advanced node manufacturing and packaging.
Mexico: Emerging as a midstream hub, but vulnerable to automotive-related tariffs.
Europe and Japan: Accelerating sovereign chip initiatives to mitigate tariff exposure and supply chain fragility.

Geopolitical investment themes
Reshoring manufacturing: Over $480 billion in announced U.S. investments under the CHIPS Act signal a strategic pivot toward domestic manufacturing. What has been the impact thus far?

Strategic regulation: Taiwan's "N-1" export rule and EU's Chips Act are reshaping global tech sovereignty.

Winners and Losers: Firms with automation capabilities and multi-region operations are attracting capital, while single-country dependent players are underperforming.

Product release timing – How long will it take to develop new products? For example, it may be easier to move custom silicon based on Arm vs. new product development, since it takes years to build a new fab.

Demand – Despite the tariffs, Liftr Insights still sees signs that AI potential will continue to increase demand for GPUs. For example, Liftr has kept an eye on the number of downloads of open-source AI models, while it continues tracking the introduction of new AI instances., 

Market timing – From its own data, Liftr Insights saw massive increases in AI cloud capacity from multiple U.S and Chinese hyperscalers over the past six to eight months. These large purchases suggest vendors are wanting to "get ahead" of tariffs -- but how long will this new capacity last until it is utilized?

Competition – Liftr Insights explores the data points suggesting the willingness that vendors will take lower margin for longer term relationships. For example, will cloud vendors continue to develop and increase investments in their own silicon to help keep costs down?

New product roadmaps – It will be far easier for cloud and data center vendors to hold off on pricing increases until a next generation processor or GPU is available as they can increase pricing along with performance or capacity gains. Will we see vendors willing to wait until the next generation comes out to increase pricing? What's the next generation timeline for Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, and Arm?