OpenAI’s multi-billion AMD deal unpacked: Big gains for both, along with TSMC and Taiwan’s ODMs

Just weeks after sealing a massive partnership with NVIDIA — which plans to invest up to $100 billion in the ChatGPT creator — OpenAI is now joining forces with Team Green’s biggest rival. According to Reuters and Tom’s Hardware, AMD has signed a multi-year deal to supply AI chips to OpenAI, a move that could bring in tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and give the AI firm the option to acquire up to 10% of the chipmaker.

Win-Win for OpenAI and AMD
TrendForce believes this move allows OpenAI to solidify its hardware supply chain in an intensely competitive AI landscape. The partnership deepens an already established relationship, given that Microsoft and Oracle—OpenAI’s major cloud providers—are also AMD customers. It marks a closer integration between OpenAI and its essential hardware suppliers.

On the other hand, the deal could provide a significant boost to AMD, as the partnership could be a game changer. Analysts and company executives cited by Seeking Alpha project that once deployments ramp up, it could potentially double or even triple AMD’s current data center business by 2030.

Tom’s Hardware, citing The Wall Street Journal, reports that AMD’s multi-year deal with OpenAI could bring tens of billions in revenue over the next five years. While exact figures remain undisclosed, each “per gigawatt” of capacity represents tens of billions, suggesting the deal could exceed $60 billion, the report states. J.P. Morgan estimates it may generate roughly $30-35 billion per year.

It carries even greater significance: according to J.P. Morgan, the agreement serves as a strong endorsement of AMD’s GPU roadmap and is likely to encourage both new and existing hyperscaler and AI lab customers to expand their engagements with AMD in the coming years.

AMD does have its own advantages: According to The Wall Street Journal, its chips are generally more affordable and their efficiency and quality continue to improve. With NVIDIA GPUs in high demand and hard to secure, AMD can position its products as a cost-effective and readily available alternative, the report notes.

Taiwanese supply chain poised to benefit
With both NVIDIA and AMD AI chips made by TSMC, the Taiwanese foundry stands to gain no matter which chips OpenAI uses, according to The Economic Daily News. OpenAI’s expanding AI server orders could also boost contract manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta, the report notes.

Deal breakdown
As per AMD, the 6-gigawatt partnership with OpenAI will power the company’s next-generation AI infrastructure across multiple generations of Instinct GPUs. The first 1-gigawatt deployment, featuring Instinct MI450 GPUs, is set to roll out in the second half of 2026, AMD notes.

In parallel, OpenAI’s first-phase collaboration with NVIDIA is also expected to go live in late 2026, built on NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform.

Notably, in return, AMD has granted OpenAI a warrant to buy up to 160 million shares at just $0.01 each over the course of the partnership. The warrant vests in stages based on agreed milestones. If all goes smoothly, OpenAI could become AMD’s single largest shareholder by 2030, holding around 10% of outstanding shares — a move that tightly aligns incentives between the two firms, according to J.P. Morgan.

The first tranche will vest following the initial shipment of Instinct MI450 GPUs in the second half of 2026, while the remaining portions are linked to stock price targets, with the final tranche unlocking once AMD’s share price reaches $600, Reuters adds.

Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.