Memory industry: Almost $200 billion in 2025 driven by HBM and AI

Yole Group announced its latest market and technology analysis: Status of the Memory Industry Report 2025. This new edition highlights the resurgence of the memory market, underpinned by surging AI workloads and a strategic shift toward HBM, even as global trade tensions threaten to disrupt supply chains.

After the historic downturn of 2022–2023, the memory industry has entered a phase of strong recovery. In 2024, memory revenue reached a record $170 billion. This rebound was fueled by AI training requirements in data centers, with HBM playing a pivotal role due to its premium pricing and performance advantages…

In April 2025, the US imposed sweeping tariffs on countries with trade surpluses, reigniting global trade tensions with China as the primary target. A temporary 90-day suspension has provided short-term relief, but the situation continues to generate uncertainty.

AI and HBM reshape the memory market landscape
In this dynamic context, HBM continues to outperform the broader DRAM segment. In 2025, HBM revenue is set to nearly double to ~$34 billion, underpinned by capacity constraints and strategic demand from AI and HPC platforms. Yole Group projects a 33% CAGR for HBM through 2030, with revenue exceeding 50% of the DRAM market.

Simone Bertolazzi, Principal Analyst, Memory at Yole Group, said that in contrast, conventional DRAM including DDR, LPDDR, GDDR grew to $80 billion in 2024 but is forecasted to expand at a modest 3% CAGR through 2030. 

NAND faces slower recovery and market recalibration
While DRAM’s recovery has been dramatic, NAND’s rebound has been more tempered. Weaker-than-expected consumer demand and high inventory levels prompted leading suppliers to reduce output through fab underutilization and production cuts. These supply-side measures helped avoid deeper pricing and margin pressure, but growth remains constrained.

Looking ahead, Yole Group’s analysts forecasts that 2025 will mark a second consecutive year of record memory revenues, expected to exceed $190 billion with $129 billion and $65 billion for DRAM and NAND market segment respectively. NOR flash revenues are also on a positive trajectory, sustaining the recovery initiated in 2024.

In April 2025, the US imposed sweeping tariffs on countries with trade surpluses, reigniting global trade tensions with China as the primary target. A temporary 90-day suspension has provided short-term relief, but the situation continues to generate uncertainty.

Josephine Lau, Senior Technology & Market Analyst, Memory at Yole Group explains: “We note a pull-forward in demand to the first half of 2025, as customers aim to hedge against potential supply risks. Despite these challenges, memory markets remain resilient. we forecast sustained growth, driven by AI’s transition from training to inference and end-device adoption.”

Transformation of memory ecosystem – China focus
Competition in the HBM market has intensified in 2025. Yole Group analysts point out a few insights:

* SK hynix leads with ~54% market share in HBM revenue and bit shipments, supported by a strong alliance with Nvidia.
    
* Samsung is fast-tracking HBM3E validation with Nvidia after falling behind on HBM market share.

* Micron is ramping its HBM3E production and launching a dedicated Cloud Memory Business Unit to address future growth.

At the same time, China is aggressively expanding its domestic memory capabilities. In 2024, CXMT disrupted the DRAM segment with low-cost DDR3/DDR4 offerings, prompting major suppliers to expedite their shift to DDR5 and HBM. By end of 2024, KingBank and Gloway introduced the first Chinese DDR5 modules built with CXMT’s G4 DRAM. 

YMTC, meanwhile, released its fifth-gen 3D NAND chip using Xtacking 4.0 and a market-leading 294-layer architecture. Faced with export restrictions, Chinese firms are investing in HBM development.

2025 marks a pivotal year for the memory industry: the sector is delivering unprecedented revenue highs despite an environment of growing complexity and competition. AI continues to serve as the central growth engine, while strategic shifts in supply chains and technology roadmaps redefine the competitive landscape. 

Key takeaways:

* Record-setting in 2024: Global memory market revenue reached $170 billion, led by DRAM at ~$97 billion and NAND at ~$68 billion.

* 2025 outlook: Revenue projected to reach $200 billion, with DRAM and NAND reaching ~$129 billion and ~$65 billion respectively.

* HBM’s rise: HBM expected to nearly double revenue in 2025, projected to reach approximately $98 billion by 2030.

* Ecosystem shift: Chinese players like CXMT and YMTC intensify global competition amid export controls and localization efforts.

* Geopolitical status: Trade tensions with China inject volatility into global supply chains, driving demand pull-forward.