Memory crunch ripples across chip supply chain: SMIC, NVIDIA, device makers feel the hit

As the global AI data-center race drains memory supply, major chipmakers are moving fast — and the shockwaves are spreading. Notably, Reuters reported last Friday that Samsung has quietly raised prices on select memory chips by as much as 60% from September. But, the scope of this memory supercycle may be far bigger than expected, with foundries, IC designers, and even end-device and motherboard makers, now feeling the squeeze.

DRAM, NAND, and NOR Flash enter supply crunch
As Commercial Times reports, DRAM, NAND, and NOR Flash are all tightening at once. DDR4 supply is especially tight, as major suppliers speed up phase-outs and shift mature-node capacity to HBM and DDR5. WJ Capital Perspective notes DDR4 could face a shortfall of around 70K wafers by the end of 2025, with 2026 unlikely to fully close the gap.

On the NAND side, the report, citing WJ Capital Perspective, attributes the price surge to a strategic shift among hyperscalers. As major CSPs consider using QLC eSSDs to replace parts of their HDD-based cold storage, NAND prices in 2025–2026 could rival or even exceed DRAM gains, with high-capacity QLC eSSDs, automotive NAND, and enterprise SSDs expected to see the strongest support, according to WJ Capital Perspective.

Within AI server designs, NOR Flash demand is also surging. Commercial Times, citing WJ Capital Perspective, notes that in NVIDIA’s GB200 NVL72 system, NOR content per rack already exceeds USD 600 — and could reach USD 900 within two years.

Memory cost pressure could hit SMIC and NVIDIA
Perhaps the most striking, a long-cycle supply crunch is triggering a “memory crowd-out effect” that’s rapidly spreading across the semiconductor supply chain. And, even the largest foundries, IC design firms, and end-device makers are feeling the impact.

SMIC Co-CEO Haijun Zhao warned that memory chip shortages are creating a supply chain bottleneck—even when other components are available, smartphone makers cannot complete assembly without sufficient memory, according to chinastarmarket.cn. Meanwhile, with handset prices holding steady, negotiations are underway on whether other chip prices can drop in 2026 to offset surging memory costs, according to Zhao.

Commercial Times, citing WJ Capital Perspective, highlights that amid the memory price surge, device brands facing rising DRAM and NAND costs have little choice, but to pressure logic IC suppliers for price cuts. Thus, IC design houses and foundries with weaker bargaining power will be forced to concede on pricing to keep orders and utilization up, the report adds.

U.S. AI chip giant NVIDIA could be among the companies impacted by soaring memory prices as well. TechNews and Commercial Times suggest that the upcoming RTX 50 Super (Blackwell) gaming GPUs — originally slated for early next-year launch — may see production and sales delayed, mainly due to the significantly higher memory content.

According to TechNews, while NVIDIA hasn’t announced a Super version of its Blackwell consumer GPUs, such releases typically arrive 12–18 months after a new generation launches

Memory modules, hardware makers feeling the squeeze
Another Commercial Times report notes that with most PCs, laptops, game consoles, tablets, and smartphones now requiring at least 16GB of memory, price spikes or capacity shortages could force tech giants to cut procurement and raise retail prices. Memory alone could add nearly NT$3,000 (~$96) to even basic office PCs next year and beyond, the report indicates.

On the other hand, the impact goes beyond soaring memory prices for both the spot and end-customer markets — new memory kit launches are also being delayed, according to Hardwareluxx. The report reveals that several manufacturers have announced they will hold off on planned Q3 and Q4 releases, waiting until 2026 to see how prices play out.

In the meantime, Commercial Times reports that Taiwan’s major motherboard makers and NB ODMs are feeling the pinch from soaring memory prices, with some already halting new motherboard development or mass production.

Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.