MCUs enter new growth cycle as market targets US$34 billion in 2030

Yole Group announced the publication of its annual Status of the Microcontroller Industry report alongside the latest quarterly edition of the Microcontroller Market Monitor, providing the industry’s most complete view of market dynamics, long-range forecasts, competitive shifts, and application trends across the global MCU landscape. Together, these two products offer both strategic and quarterly granularity for decision-makers navigating a rapidly evolving semiconductor environment.

Comprehensive investigation of long-range market forces
The annual report delivers a deep strategic outlook built on updated market metrics, including revenue, units, ASP, historical data from 2020–2024, and forecasts through 2030. It provides an expanded segmentation across ten vertical markets, detailed manufacturing trends, MCU design evolutions, and an extensive supplier ranking.

Unlike the quarterly Market Monitor, which tracks short-term movement, the annual study offers long-range analysis of the forces shaping the industry: competitive landscape changes, technology transitions, production strategies, and application-specific growth.

Market dynamics: Growth drivers and structural shifts
The MCU market continues to expand across automotive, industrial, smartcard & secure, defense, and consumer segments. Automotive remains the most influential category, growing at 3% CAGR and fueled by architectural transitions toward domain and zone control, ADAS intelligence, network security, and electrification.

Industrial and defense applications also show strong momentum with nearly 9% CAGR, while the smartcard & secure segment stands out with an exceptional 13.5% CAGR, reaching approximately US$7 billion by 2030.

Tom Hackenberg, Principal Analyst, Computing at Yole Group, said: "Automotive is a small market in terms of units sold, but the high semiconductor volume, high ASP, and evolving technology make it a uniquely interesting market and the largest revenue generator for MCUs."

Despite this progress, the market faces lasting supply chain uncertainty. Geopolitical conflicts, U.S. trade restrictions, tariffs, sanctions, and government interventions create a complex environment for forecasting and production planning. Pricing trends, which peaked during the pandemic-driven supply shortage, have now stabilized into a gradual decline rather than reverting to pre-COVID levels. Inventory reductions at OEMs in late 2024 also triggered a significant temporary downturn.

Technology and application trends reshaping MCU demand
AI capability is emerging as a key differentiator. With TinyML frameworks enabling ML on resource-constrained processors and architectures such as Arm’s M55/M85 or AI-accelerated RISC-V cores moving into mainstream suppliers, MCU-level AI is expected to reach at least 10% of all MCUs by 2028. At the same time, the automotive sector continues to demand high-reliability MCUs to meet safety and security requirements, including ISO 26262 and AEC-Q100 compliance, across steering, braking, propulsion, communications, and energy management systems.

Electrification further accelerates MCU adoption, particularly in hybrid platforms requiring simultaneous ICE and electric powertrain coordination. Beyond propulsion, consumers expect full-vehicle electrification—from digital lighting to smart seating and cockpit experiences—driving additional MCU proliferation.

John Lorenz, Director, Memory & Computing at Yole Group, added: :The MCU landscape is being reshaped by AI extensions, vehicle electrification, and the shift toward domain and zone architectures. Combined with geopolitical pressure and supply chain restructuring, these forces create both risk and opportunity for suppliers worldwide."

Against a backdrop of supply chain uncertainty, electrification trends, and rapid innovation in embedded AI, the microcontroller industry remains a cornerstone of the semiconductor landscape. 

Key takeaways
* The global MCU market is set to surpass US$34 billion by 2030, with a 6% CAGR2024–2030.
* Automotive remains the largest MCU revenue driver, reaching US$13 billion by 2030.
* Smartcard and secure MCUs show the fastest growth, with 13.5% CAGR through 2030.
* Infineon Technologies, NXP, Renesas, and STMicroelectronics collectively hold almost 70% of the MCU market in 2024.
* Supply chain uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and normalized pricing define a market balancing long-term demand with short-term volatility.