DRAM prices to continue rising in 4Q25, server demand surges ahead

TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that the three major DRAM suppliers continue to allocate advanced process capacity primarily to high-end server DRAM and HBM, crowding out capacity for PC, mobile, and consumer applications. Combined with diverging demand across end products, this dynamic is keeping legacy-process DRAM price hikes pronounced, while newer-generation products are seeing more modest gains. Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise 8–13% QoQ in 4Q25, and when HBM is included, the increase could widen to 13-18%.

PC DRAM prices edge up slightly, U.S. CSPs consider early server DRAM procurement
Shipments of finished PCs are projected to decline with PC promotions and restocking momentum slowing in 4Q25, leading major OEMs to cut DRAM bit procurement. Meanwhile, as the three suppliers aggressively shift capacity toward server DDR5, the supply of both PC DDR5 and DDR4 remains constrained. As a result, PC DRAM prices are forecast to continue edging upward through the quarter.

Server DRAM demand is benefiting from recovering build-out momentum among CSPs, with DDR5 products in particular seeing sustained strength. Both U.S. and CSPs are projected to sharply increase procurement in 2026. Some U.S. CSPs, seeking to secure adequate supply, are even planning to begin procurement as early as 4Q25, adopting a more flexible stance on pricing.

Despite suppliers’ active capacity adjustments, several uncertainties remain—technical issues at certain vendors, as well as suppliers’ plans to prioritize HBM4 capacity in 1H26—leaving DDR5 supply conditions unsettled. Prices are therefore expected to remain on an upward trajectory in 4Q25. Additionally, while some suppliers have extended DDR4 production for specific clients, robust demand is sustaining significant price hikes for DDR4 as well.

Mobile DRAM prices rising, graphics DRAM demand holds, consumer DRAM growth moderates
LPDDR4X—used in mid- and low-end smartphones—is seeing supply continue to shrink as suppliers cut bit output. Brands have stepped up procurement to avoid supply disruptions, exacerbating the imbalance and pushing LPDDR4X prices to climb more than 10% QoQ in 4Q25. LPDDR5X adoption is expanding beyond premium smartphones into other device categories. Although no immediate shortages are apparent, supply dynamics and pricing strategies suggest that LPDDR5X prices will continue rising in 4Q25.

The seasonal PC restocking cycle and anticipation for NVIDIA’s RTX 6000 series are supporting strong pull-in momentum for graphics DRAM, particularly GDDR7. Suppliers are reinforcing their pricing stance due to expecting a supply shortage, meaning GDDR7 prices are projected to rise more sharply than in the prior quarter. Legacy GDDR6, still widely used in previous-generation GPUs, is maintaining stable demand but faces constrained supply, leaving GDDR6 prices rising even faster than GDDR7.

Suppliers remain firm on pricing for consumer DDR4, despite offering limited supply. However, end-product sales have not shown a strong rebound, and following near-doubling of DDR4 prices in 3Q25, buyers have scaled back restocking. Consequently, DDR4 price growth is expected to moderate in 4Q25. Meanwhile, DDR3 continues to see early procurement demand. Combined with capacity displacement and rapid inventory digestion, DDR3 prices are projected to keep climbing.

Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.