Copper: Wiring tomorrow's world!

Copper powers the future of mankind. This humble metal, prized since antiquity, underpins every megatrend defining the 21st century: electrification, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, space exploration, and digital infrastructure. As global demand surges toward 42.7 million tonnes annually by 2035, copper's critical role demands urgent attention, especially at a time when supply chains are disrupted, prices skyrocket, demand-supply gaps widens and innovations accelerate.  

Electric vehicles spearhead the charge. A single EV devours 60-80 kg of copper—triple that of an internal combustion engine ( ICE) vehicle—for batteries, motors, inverters, and charging. With EVs hitting 40% of global car sales by 2030, demand jumps 3.5 million tonnes yearly, as per the International Energy Association(IEA). India, targeting 30% EV penetration, faces a 200,000-tonne gap by decade's end, straining its 50% import reliance.

AI data centres amplify this gap. These power-guzzling AI-powered facilities will require about 400,000 tonnes a year over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tonnes in 2028, rivalling EV needs, according to a BloombergNEF report. 

Renewables lean heavily on copper, too. Deploying miles of copper cabling demands huge quantities of copper—solar power systems require approximately 5.5 tons of copper per MW—to resist corrosion where aluminium fails.  Wind turbines embed 4.7 tonnes each; offshore variants quadruple that. Net-zero pathways demand terawatts of solar and wind energy, requiring millions of tonnes of copper for generation, grids, and storage.

Data centers and 5G/6G networks compound the urgency. Hyperscale facilities pack 27-33 tonnes copper per MW for power distribution. India's digital economy needs 1 million km fiber-optic copper hybrids. Semiconductors, EVs, and robotics each claim slices, pushing total demand 75% higher by 2050.

Supply lags dangerously. While the top mine like Escondida continues to remain the world's largest copper mine (1.35M tonnes/year capacity), Grasberg, another major mine, faces disruptions, which lost 591kt lost 2025-26 with full recovery possibly only by 2027. And, new projects face 16-year lead times. 

A  Bloomberg NEF/IEA cite 6-8 million ton gap by 2035 factoring energy transition demand. China refines 60%, controlling leverage; geopolitical risks (Chile water disputes, Congo unrest) threaten flows. Copper reached an all-time high above $11,600/t on December 5, 2025—a 32% increase year-on-year-- driven by depleted inventories, mine disruptions, and accelerated U.S. stockpiling.

India confronts acute vulnerability. Domestic output stagnates at 600 kilotonnes against 1.2 million consumed with 50% of demand being  imported from Chile, Peru and Congo. EV ambitions (10 million units/year) and 500 GW renewables risk derailment without urgent action and even the net-zero 2070 target hinges on copper security. 

India already possesses industrial-scale capability through players like Sterlite Copper, which can anchor recycling, secondary smelting, and EV-grade copper production if supported by enabling policy.  E-waste urban mines hold hundreds of kilotonnes copper potential, yet formal recovery remains under 5% amid informal dominance. Hence, PLI incentives must expand to smelters; deep-sea nodules offer huge potential. Policy must auction stalled blocks under MMDR Act amendments.

Meanwhile, the global race for copper intensifies. The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides tax credits and streamlined policies allowing  for critical minerals projects, accelerating Resolution Copper (Rio Tinto/BHP JV in Arizona)—targeting ~450 kt/year capacity once operational (est. 2030s). Similarly,  Europe's Battery Regulation mandates 20% recycled content in lithium-ion batteries by 2031 (rising to 26% lithium, 12% cobalt/nickel by 2035), driving circular copper supply chains via EU Critical Raw Materials Act. 

India should strategically partner with Vedanta and JSW Steel to tap their African copper expansions, securing stable concentrate supplies amid 50% import dependence and looming global shortages. For instance, Vedanta has regained full control of Konkana Copper Mines (Zambia's Copperbelt) in 2024 after disputes, committing $1.5B additional (plus $3B prior) via new US subsidiary CopperTech Metals.

Copper shortages imperil prosperity. Deficits results in inflated costs curbing usage, which stall EVs, delays renewables and grid infrastructure. Policymakers must act. National Copper Mission (₹10,000 crore) accelerates exploration; SEZs spur recycling. Partnerships with Glencore/BHP secure offtakes. With integrated producers in the copper industry and decisive policy support, India can convert copper scarcity into strategic strength.

-- Amir-Ullah Khan, Economist and Research Director at CDPP, Adjunct Professor at TISS and Manipal University.