Clean power poised to begin the era of fossil fuel decline

In a world of higher electricity demand growth, clean electricity is stepping up to the challenge. Spearheaded by exponential solar expansion, clean power is set to grow faster than demand, marking the start of a permanent decline in fossil generation

2024 both clarified and consolidated the shape of the global clean power transition. At first glance it might appear an unremarkable year, as global fossil generation increased for another year. However, the main driver of this increase was the change in temperature between 2024 and 2023. Stripping out these temperature effects, clean generation met 96% of the demand increase in 2024. Isolating the trend from the short-term fluctuations, it becomes clear that the world is very close to an era of falling fossil fuel generation.

2024 also cemented solar power as the engine of the global energy transition. Global solar generation increased by nearly a third, continuing its lead as the largest and fastest-growing source of new electricity. Its rise was on display everywhere in 2024, from world leaders like China, India, Brazil and the EU to new markets in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The startling expansion and cost reduction of battery storage offer another positive, enhancing the economics of solar power still further.

New drivers of demand – data centres for AI and cryptomining, and electrified transport and heating – raise pressing questions about how to meet rising power consumption. 2024 has shown that solar and batteries, the new engines of growth, are best placed to deliver cheaply and at scale, and are already doing so. While demand growth is undoubtedly going to be higher than in previous years, Ember’s analysis shows that clean growth is set to outpace it, making long-term investments to grow fossil generation a risky bet. 

Any near-term increases in fossil fuel generation should not be mistaken for failure of the energy transition. As we pass the tipping point where clean generation structurally outpaces demand growth, any changes to fossil fuel generation over the short-term will mostly reflect fluctuations in weather, as seen in 2024 with the impacts of heatwaves. But while changes in fossil generation in the short-term may be noisy, the direction and ultimate destination are unmistakable. The global energy transition is no longer a question of if, but how fast. 

The significant advances of 2024 were achieved despite unfavourable geopolitical headwinds. In 2025 those winds are strengthening again, with an increased prospect of tariffs on international trade and a US administration pinning its energy hopes on fossil fuels. However, while playing an important role, the US is not the central driver of the global clean energy transition – this role has fallen more and more to China.

China registered more than half of the global increase in both solar and wind power in 2024 and is the world leader in both clean energy manufacturing and deployment. There is no indication that China is slowing its own transition to an electrified economy, nor that its trade relationships with other Global South countries will do anything but intensify.

Beyond China, the rapid clean energy build registered by India, Brazil and the EU is a sign that other major economies are forging ahead. Notably, India is rapidly expanding its own solar and battery manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, uncertainties over trade relations with the US are likely to increase many governments’ appetite for the clean energy transition, in regions including Europe and Latin America, because it offers a route to reduced dependence on volatile global markets for coal and gas. 

The imperative for the energy transition is clear: the world is upgrading from an inefficient energy system reliant on securing a constant supply of expensive and polluting fossil fuels. In the new energy system, electricity will be at the heart, with clean electrons powering everything from transport to steel production.

Solar and wind, backed by a suite of clean flexibility solutions like improved grids and storage, will be the engine powering the world. 2024 shows unmistakably that the transition to this new energy system is very much underway. Governments and businesses that act decisively to embrace clean energy and quickly move away from fossil fuels will be rewarded with a more resilient, competitive, and secure energy future.

-- Ember, UK.