China subsidy program drives 1Q25 smartphone production to 289mn units

TrendForce’s latest research reveals that global smartphone production reached 289 million units in 1Q25. Although this represents a 3% decline compared to the same period in 2024, production remained relatively stable across major brands. In China, sales in the first quarter were buoyed by the ongoing consumer subsidy program, resulting in a modest uptick in shipments. 

Looking ahead to the second quarter, uncertainty surrounding the global political and economic environment is expected to dampen consumer demand, leading to a flat production outlook compared to Q1.

The performance of major brands is detailed as follows:

Samsung reclaimed the top position in the first quarter, with production jumping up 21% QoQ to hit 64 million units. This growth was driven by preparations for flagship model launches and a ramp-up in production in response to new U.S. tariffs.

Apple ranked second with 48 million units produced, down 40% QoQ as shipments of its latest models tapered off. Since most of Apple’s products fall outside the scope of China’s subsidies—and face stiff competition in the Chinese market—its Q1 market share in China declined significantly. In contrast, U.S. sales saw a pull-forward effect due to concerns over tariffs, though this may cast uncertainty over demand in the second half of the year.

Xiaomi (including sub-brands Redmi and Poco) maintained third place with nearly 42 million units produced. The brand’s comprehensive product portfolio across premium, mid-range, and entry-level segments, combined with the boost from China’s subsidies, led to solid Q1 performance. Additionally, its integrated product ecosystem—spanning smartphones, smart homes, and EVs—bolstered Xiaomi’s market positioning and supported sales of high-end models.

Oppo (including OnePlus and Realme) ranked fourth, producing around 27 million units. This marks a 26% QoQ and 19% YoY decline, primarily driven by inventory adjustments. The brand has been actively expanding in overseas markets such as Europe and South America. Realme, in particular, has gained traction among younger consumers in South America with its affordable and stylish designs.

Vivo (including iQoo) produced 24 million units in Q1, securing fifth place. With sales concentrated in China, Vivo also benefited from the subsidy program to achieve year-over-year production growth.

Transsion (including TECNO, Infinix, and itel) ranked sixth with nearly 22 million units, a 20% QoQ drop. The company did not benefit from subsidy-driven demand as its sales remain focused on emerging markets outside China. Increased investment by competitors in regions like Africa and Central Asia, combined with a high base effect from inventory replenishment in 1Q24, led to a sharper 28% YoY decline in production.

Source: TrendForce, Taiwan.