End of the Slowdown?

Where are we on the slowdown curve, is one of the most frequently asked
questions these days. I do not have a quick answer, but there are some
indicators that I can talk about. Talking to people in the IT industry one gets
a mixed response now. While most people that I have met in the Iast two weeks
have said the taps are still dry, I have met a few big players who said that
business meetings have started happening again. And they believe that once the
elections are over, and a stable government gets formed, the domestic market is
likely to start moving.

Marketing and other advertising activities is another indicator. While
advertising for hardware and software had literally vanished a few months back,
it is beginning to appear again, even though far too less than what we were used
to. What is more important however is that there is a sudden spurt in what is
known as BTL activities. IT vendors are sponsoring conferences, seminars, panel
discussions, and off-sites like never before. They want to loose no chance to
get the eyes and ears of the customers.

However, we must go beyond IT and try to look at the bigger picture. While
there are several aspects to be considered while looking at the bigger picture,
one of its aspect seems to be quite encouragingthat is recruitment. According
to a recent survey of Naukri.com, between January and February of this year,
action on the hiring front in India has gone up.

For instance, hiring went up in industries like oil and gas, auto,
construction, pharma, telecom and insurance, and there was more demand for
sales, business development, and production professionals. Out of a total of 13
cities surveyed, hiring in Delhi, Chennai, Pune, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, Baroda
and Jaipur moved up. Though the maximum number of jobs continued to be in the
4-7 years experience bracket, senior management hiring also picked up.

Nobody should doubt that hiring in sectors other than IT is more important,
and would logically lead to increase in action in the IT space too. For
instance, more hiring in construction or insurance means requirement for more
desktops and laptops. Therefore, as of now I am happy, and hope that what we are
witnessing is not just a spurt of selective hiring, but would continue for the
next few months too. Many would not agree that the worst is over, but we must
keep in mind that many of these sectorsoil and gas, auto, construction,
telecomare not peripheral segments. Increase in business activity here is
likely to have positive impact on other sectors too. And logically, sooner than
later, demand for IT to run these sectors efficiently will go up.

Ibrahim Ahmad

ibrahima@cybermedia.co.in