Why MAGA could automatically lead to MIGA

One never knows when the law of unintended consequences will kick in. US President Donald Trump wants to Make America Great Again. But many of his actions could well end up weakening some aspects of American trade and internal supply chains. India, on the other hand, has golden opportunity to strive for a new kind of greatness.

It is getting more and more difficult to go to the US and stay there nowadays. While applying for a visa, if you change your DS-160 form after getting an appointment, then you will have your appointment cancelled. While biometrics were necessary for tourist and business visas, they will now be compulsory for H-1B visas too along with a detailed home address. Once on American soil, you must always carry: Your identity card and your registration documents. Failing this you will be penalized. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a Green Card or not. For students, if you participate in a protest, jump a red light, exit a store without paying for something or even skip classes, you could be summarily deported. Not a very pleasant time for Indians visiting the US short term or long term. Now the Green Card can be cancelled more easily and there is a proposal that it can be cancelled in retrospect. What happens if you become a citizen, but your Green Card gets cancelled in retrospect a few years before you got your citizenship? Can they cancel your citizenship based on that? That’s a cruel sword of Damocles hanging above you.

No more brain drain?

The above is a crisis. That is where India usually scores. I have written many times how we always turn adversity into opportunity. The 1950s famine became the 1960s Green Revolution. The 1962 war defeat became the 1965 comeback. In 1977 Janata Party threw out IBM from the country. The 1980s Congress government brought back IT with a bang. The late 1980s financial crisis became the Liberalization of 1991. The Y2K crisis led to the birth of the IT services industry.

What this means is that now more and more professionals and students will be unwilling to go to the US. While this will be bad for them and their aspirations, it may not be so bad for India. We have been seeing a brain drain for decades. But that time it was different. India didn’t have a fat pipe for high-tech jobs. Many engineers had no choice but to go abroad to do the things they had to do. They were spectacularly successful. They sent important foreign exchange home when India was short, created a lot of goodwill for us and some even returned to India with their wealth and experience. In a way, given the conditions in India, brain drain was necessary for both the emigrants and the country.

Not anymore. India is the fastest growing large economy and soon will be the third largest. Offline infrastructure is growing by leaps and bounds while our digital infrastructure is the envy of the world. The government is actively pushing AI, quantum and chip technology. If your interest happens to be either the old or the new, then India is the place for you. The Brain Drain argument was that since there were no opportunities in India, you had no choice but to go abroad. That is no longer valid. Maybe there are more opportunities here than the rest of the world. If you are in the upper middle class, then life is good. Professionals can choose to stay back and create more opportunities. It’s a multiplier effect. First America had it. Now India could well benefit.

America is a declining power. India is a rising power. Nothing happens overnight. But if you take two Indian tech graduates, one who starts working in America and one who starts working in India today, the former will do better in the short run. The odds are greater that the latter would do better in the long run. Over a period of 40 years India will probably show more growth, innovation and opportunity. At the time of retirement, probably the Indian resident will be much better off.

Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs.

There is also the issue of tariffs that we can profit from. While the liberalization of 1991 was bold, it did stop short after 1-2 years after which a lot of slow reforms took place. We can still rejig our tariffs to boost our trade. We have increased our trade with Russia. China, the EU, the UK, all are interested in having separate deals with India. It’s not just about America, which may eventually come around.

A financial journalist has already created a term which has gained traction called TACO Trade. TACO stands for: Trump Always Chickens Out. At this stage lesser and lesser people believe that tariffs will be successful and will cause any kind of disruption.

Ekla Chalo Re (Go alone)

While it is still not that clear how the Indo-Pak ceasefire came about, America proved to be no friend. They claimed to have stopped the ceasefire and issued social media statements catching India off guard. Then they equated India and Pakistan as if they were equal countries and nobody was at fault. While America is no friend of ours, it is not an enemy. Just as well. You may remember that former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

I was watching a foreign podcast where the host remarked that India was the only country in the world that tried to engage individually with all the countries instead of trying to compete and dominate them. This is true. We have the potential to emerge as superpower with minimum enemies. While China is an adversary, we do a great deal of trade with them, and border talks have quietened things a bit.

The only exception is Pakistan which refuses to change, is delusional and tries to punch way above its capability always with disastrous results. But in the latest Indo-Pak conflict, we were firm and gave a one-sided battle where our opponent just looked out. It really doesn’t matter what the anti-India Western media says. They can’t change the reality. Pakistan is on the verge of collapse.

All in all, if you add everything up, Make India Great Again has a greater chance of succeeding than Make America Great Again!