DESKTOP TO WEBTOP A Model Shift

First came the isolated PC on the desktop. Then the network,

and the client-server model. Home PCs, though, remained isolated and secluded–get

software, run it on the PC. For every new application or upgrade, pay a high

price, or pirate. In either case, the initial experience of using a product may

be one of disenchantment.

Users are increasingly looking for richer features to take

care of their growing computing needs. But as individuals they have little

choice but to keep their purchase to a minimum. Even early adopters and nerds

are reluctant to keep trying complex new software that needs to be installed

from scratch each time.

The bandwidth shift

Now think of the future. What will happen to the world of PCs

in an era of abundant bandwidth and intelligent routers? Peer-to-peer

Napster-Gnutella models would let you choose your software from a vast range of

products.

With more bandwidth comes this opportunity for PC users to

form networked, real-time communities. Community members will be able to share

apps created by individual members. Napster has already provided the opportunity

for music lovers to share their stock of music worldwide, often illegally. If

Shawn Fanning–the Napster software developer–could do it, why not the

followers of the open source model? There must be many Richard Stallmans or

Linus Torvalds waiting in the wings.

Will more bandwidth imply the days of packaged software

coming to an end? "Certainly not, the standard packaged software is far

superior. Further, in view of proper upgrades and services, people will look for

packaged software," says Microsoft OEM director for South Asia, Rajeev

Popli. According to Popli, more bandwidth means a matching of local and remote

application needs, and open source software may find its own place, guided by

the needs of individual users. It may happen that a large number of PC users who

are comfortable with software like Microsoft Office or Adobe PhotoShop will get

them on hire at a cheap rate from the application software providers. This

use-and-pay model would become a viable alternative for PC users–the local

cable operators and ISPs serving as the providers. Such application providers

would attempt to provide a host of packages with regular upgrades, which would

cost a fortune to users if bought separately from the market.

For shareware and open source software, a single site may not

be the only place of search for

Web browsers; every computer will act as a source for the new and innovative

applications. The whole thing has a great significance so far as the richness

and flexibility of applications are concerned.

Says SV Ramana, Cisco systems engineering manager: "With

more bandwidth, new Net-based apps will come into force. These will include

video-on-demand and videoconferencing." With intelligent multicast tech

solutions, it’s likely that the latest blockbusters of Hollywood and Bollywood

are available on the Net and will reach the users whenever they wish to see

them. Video and multimedia streaming will make that as easy as accessing a file

on the hard disk. "So far, accessing the Net has been quite frustrating. In

future, with plenty of bandwidth, running resource-hungry apps would not be a

problem," Ramana says..

Inside the PC

Running a PC that has video and multimedia streaming means

more memory and high-end graphic cards and multimedia kits. 15-inch monitors are

now standard, but with more multimedia content, the monitor segment would see an

increased demand for larger viewing area. Moreover, with prices coming down, the

LCD flat-panel segment would witness a flurry of activity. With more bandwidth,

convergence will drive the PC specs–PCs without Ethernet cards or fax modem

card would become unthinkable.

The Web-based model that emerges, driven by a sufficient

bandwidth, would make the present day PC undergo many changes. Whatever be the

form, the PC is likely to remain an essential component of the new model.

However, the new computing model (even if ‘computing’ has different

connotations then) would also see several non-PC devices in common use.

A DQ Report