DESKTOP TO WEBTOP A Model Shift

First came the isolated PC on the desktop. Then the network,
and the client-server model. Home PCs, though, remained isolated and secluded–get
software, run it on the PC. For every new application or upgrade, pay a high
price, or pirate. In either case, the initial experience of using a product may
be one of disenchantment.

Users are increasingly looking for richer features to take
care of their growing computing needs. But as individuals they have little
choice but to keep their purchase to a minimum. Even early adopters and nerds
are reluctant to keep trying complex new software that needs to be installed
from scratch each time.

The bandwidth shift

Now think of the future. What will happen to the world of PCs
in an era of abundant bandwidth and intelligent routers? Peer-to-peer
Napster-Gnutella models would let you choose your software from a vast range of
products.

With more bandwidth comes this opportunity for PC users to
form networked, real-time communities. Community members will be able to share
apps created by individual members. Napster has already provided the opportunity
for music lovers to share their stock of music worldwide, often illegally. If
Shawn Fanning–the Napster software developer–could do it, why not the
followers of the open source model? There must be many Richard Stallmans or
Linus Torvalds waiting in the wings.

Will more bandwidth imply the days of packaged software
coming to an end? "Certainly not, the standard packaged software is far
superior. Further, in view of proper upgrades and services, people will look for
packaged software," says Microsoft OEM director for South Asia, Rajeev
Popli. According to Popli, more bandwidth means a matching of local and remote
application needs, and open source software may find its own place, guided by
the needs of individual users. It may happen that a large number of PC users who
are comfortable with software like Microsoft Office or Adobe PhotoShop will get
them on hire at a cheap rate from the application software providers. This
use-and-pay model would become a viable alternative for PC users–the local
cable operators and ISPs serving as the providers. Such application providers
would attempt to provide a host of packages with regular upgrades, which would
cost a fortune to users if bought separately from the market.

For shareware and open source software, a single site may not
be the only place of search for
Web browsers; every computer will act as a source for the new and innovative
applications. The whole thing has a great significance so far as the richness
and flexibility of applications are concerned.

Says SV Ramana, Cisco systems engineering manager: "With
more bandwidth, new Net-based apps will come into force. These will include
video-on-demand and videoconferencing." With intelligent multicast tech
solutions, it’s likely that the latest blockbusters of Hollywood and Bollywood
are available on the Net and will reach the users whenever they wish to see
them. Video and multimedia streaming will make that as easy as accessing a file
on the hard disk. "So far, accessing the Net has been quite frustrating. In
future, with plenty of bandwidth, running resource-hungry apps would not be a
problem," Ramana says..

Inside the PC

Running a PC that has video and multimedia streaming means
more memory and high-end graphic cards and multimedia kits. 15-inch monitors are
now standard, but with more multimedia content, the monitor segment would see an
increased demand for larger viewing area. Moreover, with prices coming down, the
LCD flat-panel segment would witness a flurry of activity. With more bandwidth,
convergence will drive the PC specs–PCs without Ethernet cards or fax modem
card would become unthinkable.

The Web-based model that emerges, driven by a sufficient
bandwidth, would make the present day PC undergo many changes. Whatever be the
form, the PC is likely to remain an essential component of the new model.
However, the new computing model (even if ‘computing’ has different
connotations then) would also see several non-PC devices in common use.

A DQ Report