Cyclone

Cyclones start as little fluffy dogs chasing their own tails.

They end up as massive gusts of wind and a deluge of water. They grow at a

ferocious rate fuelled by the very water and wind, that just a few hours before

were calm and contended. They change directions frequently and gather power

continuously. They change the existing paths and where none exist create their

own. You cannot predict where they will end, or, when. What you can predict is

that they will change your life. They have a way of doing so.

Cyclone ‘e’ is similar–with some differences. It built

up over the past few years and may last a few more years. And it is not just a

destroyer but also a creator. Ironically, unlike other cyclones, it will destroy

those who stand by the side waiting for it to pass, and will create those who

care to join it. Once its impact is fully felt the world of business will not be

the same. It will not only create ebusinesses, it will also create an e-world.

And this is not media hype. It is plain reality.

While IT will help make this e-revolution happen, it will

also be severely impacted by it. What will be some of the key trends?

Hardware is already a commodity. It will become even more so.

Power in terms of speed and storage will increase rapidly, so that the speed and

space guzzling applications can multiply. But the chip will cease to be the

centerpiece of attraction that it was. For almost a decade and a half the

computer moved inwards. That journey will continue but will cease to be the

major determinant or measure of technological advancement. A reverse journey

that has started during the last couple of years will gain momentum. This

journey outwards is the journey to weld computers across the world into one. The

key players will be those who do innovations to make this happen–the type of

people who once created hyperlinks and those who are now creating the Napsters.

The people who will create equipment or software and services for making the

network efficient. Those who will be able to connect the knowledge and

information banks into real practical applications. And as bandwidth increases

and connectivity becomes efficient, their prices will follow the path that

hardware followed in the last decade of the twentieth century.

Software innovation will move from the office to homes and

other segments of society, from business to entertainment applications, from

productivity to leisure products and services. Innovations in these areas will

be the drivers of the future. Windows is no more fashionable. Music downloads

are. In the last decade the growth of computing was dominated by the growth of

corporate applications. In the next it will be dominated by the growth of

applications for all other areas of society.

Software companies will reposition themselves as e-enablement

companies. They will supply the tools to tackle this gold rush. They have

started with creating brochure-ware for websites version 0.0. These will have no

major use and will therefore move quickly to higher versions, which will

actually offer better values and newer services to customers. Backward

integration into existing or new databases, which makes commerce a reality, will

form the major services.

Dotcoms will spring up–if they have not already done so–for

virtually everything that one can imagine. But these are still the early

pioneers for whom gold lies under every bush, in every rock, in all streams–everywhere

they dig. Only some of them strike gold. And since optimism and risk taking are

the characteristics of the young, these will continue to drive the dotcoms. The

brick and mortar companies will scramble to keep pace but will be equally loathe

to leave their secure servers. So many of them will be left behind panting. Will

they first fund and then buy over those who strike the gold?

And who will strike the gold? Probably those who make the

business happen, on or through their sites. Here the standard products will be

the first ones to be sold on the net. These are where customers know for what

they want–they are just looking for the right prices, airline tickets, hotel

rooms, household items, standard spares and everything else that is easy to

select and order. Within these, the available choices will multiply by

exponential factors because technology will make it possible to select quickly

from a multitude of options. And as the options increase, margins will be

squeezed–only the volume players will survive. Others will have to be more

creative to survive and grow.

Therefore, the rules of the game are:

• Join it. Don’t fight it. Let the momentum carry you
  
  forward. Cyclones do not give you the choice to say, "I will not
  
  participate."

• Cyclones give new paths. Overhaul your business. Dump
  
  extra baggage. This does not mean your people. This means your thoughts
  
  about the way businesses work. If you don’t, your people will dump you
  
  anyway.

• And finally, forget all these and make new rules. These
  
  may all be wrong.

Shyam MalhotraEditor-in-Chief, Cyber Media