Cisco: Sold on India

Back in early 2003, Cisco Systems Inc executive Rangu Salgame
hopped into a taxi at Bombay airport and struck up a conversation with the
driver. Returning to his native land to work for the first time in 20 years,
Salgame was thinking of taking the helm of the networking giant's India
operation.

SALGAME He sees a market in transition

At that point, China was the focus of Cisco's Asian
energies, and the India operation was a Cisco backwater. Making it big enough to
matter to the massive company would be a big challenge. Salgame figured he would
start his due diligence right in the cab. "So how's life in India these
days?" he asked, expecting the usual litany of woes. To his surprise, the
driver answered: "Pretty good. My children are at school, doing well and
learning English. I earn OK For the first time, I am feeling there's a future
in India."

That was the start of what has become a love affair between
Cisco and the Indian market. Salgame took the job, and after three months of
intensive research he came to the conclusion that India was on the cusp of a
major economic leap forward wherein its companies would use technology to become
major players on the global stage. "I had no time to waste," Salgame
recalls. "Once you spot a market transition, you've got to go for
it."

Unconventional Thinking

Salgame and his staff wrote a report to Cisco ceo John Chambers asserting that
India's telecom, technology, finance, and other companies were ready to spend
big bucks on upgrading their information technology networks. Within months,
Salgame had secured permission to triple his sales staff and boost the company
headcount from 1,000 to 1,400. Just two years later analysts say he has a $550
mn business-and it will hit $1 bn by 2008. Last month, Chambers announced $1.1
bn in new investment in Cisco India.

And Cisco's China business? On November 9, in a conference
call, Chambers made a striking prediction: "It would not surprise me to see
India actually challenge China, in terms of our business revenue, three to
four years."

Chambers' statement certainly goes against conventional
wisdom. After all, China boasts a $1.6 trillion economy that's growing at a 9%
annual clip, and it's the world's largest market for many products. India,
with the same 1 billionplus population, has a $700 bn economy that's growing
at 7%.

And Cisco itself has been a major beneficiary of China's
buildout. From the late 1990s through 2003, China's massive state-controlled
phone companies built nationwide networks that connected more than 30 mn homes,
and Cisco profited greatly. Many Western companies, meanwhile, are banking on
China remaining their single biggest source of new growth. Says Meichun Hsu, a
Hewlett-Packard Co executive who will run a new research and development lab in
Beijing: "China's potential is greater than India's for the next
decade, even though India could be the bigger economy in the next 25
years." Others are even more skeptical about India matching China.
"Maybe in 50 years," says Toshiba Corp CEO Atsutoshi Nishida.

What is Cisco thinking? The company is betting that India's
growth rate is going to pick up smartly-in part because deregulation of its
telecom industry is leading to vast investments in new Internet infrastructure.
"We are witnessing the advanced stages of an enormous evolution of the
Indian market as the government rolls back state control and as the economy
becomes liberalized," says Cisco senior vice-president Daniel Scheinman.
That creates a huge new market for Cisco with big phone companies, including
state-owned BSNL as well as private players such as Bharti and Tata Group, which
are rolling out state-of-the-art broadband networks. That in turn is leading to
demand from consumers and companies.

While Cisco says it's not reducing its commitment to China,
it perceives that China's centrally controlled economy is taking a breather.
Beijing recently delayed a $6 bn-plus disbursement related to construction of a
new 3G wireless network. What's more, Cisco sees a wave of Indian
entrepreneurship that, together with tougher laws on intellectual property
rights, will make the nation an attractive place to set up r&d and venture
operations. Cisco is not alone in this view.

In China, meanwhile, the picture is hazy. There Cisco faces
pressure from scrappy homegrown rivals such as Huawei Technologies and Harbour
Networks Co. By undercutting Cisco's topshelf prices by as much as 50%, the
locals have helped take a bite out of Cisco's market share, which has dropped
from 75% in 2001 to some 48%, according to market researcher idc. Cisco's
revenue in China hit a five-year low of $150.1 mn in the second quarter. While
Cisco posted nearly 30% growth in China in its most recent quarter, it could be
hard-pressed to maintain that pace. "Several years ago nobody could compare
with Cisco," says Li Yinan, president of privately held Harbour. "Even
today we don't have brand name, but our products and technology
can meet local requirements."

India, on the other hand, grew 70% in the most recent quarter
and should continue to grow at 40% or more in coming years. Cisco's share of
the India market: 74%. "In China, you've got Huawei. In India, you've
got nobody," says jmp Securities llc analyst Samuel C Wilson.

Part of Cisco's China problem is its own success. Its first
priority is sustaining its sky-high 68% gross margins. In this regard, the
Chinese corporate market is particularly challenging. Besides matching rivals'
low prices, winning market share means investing in huge sales and field
operations, in part because there are fewer of the local tech distributors and
integrators that Cisco relies on elsewhere. "The market> in China is tough," says Thomas F Mendoza, president of
storage-gear maker Network Appliance Inc. "The promise is there, but very
few are making money." As Cisco shifts focus to India, someone is going to
learn a tough lesson: Cisco, if it leaves too much business on the table in
China, or its rivals, if Cisco has guessed right about what it believes is the
best growth market of them all.

By Peter Burrows and Manjeet Kripalani

With Bruce Einhorn in Beijing