Can the PC Leap?

The

latest IDC survey result of PC and notebook shipments in the country during the

2005 calendar year, tells us much more beyond mere numbers. It tells us that

India now wants to get going for its rightful role in the global economy. The

role that many in the world have now assumed India will play. The role of a big

destination for knowledge-based services.

I believe that one

major facilitator for taking India into that league will be PC penetration.

Unless and until we have a significant chunk of the huge `youth population'

playing around with PCs, India will not have the desired manpower pool to grab

the increasing BPO and KPO opportunity.

More than 40 lakh

systems were sold in the year 2005, which was a growth of 26% over 2004. And,

obviously, all of them did not land up with new users-many would have been a

replacement for junked systems. Therefore, the new users added in the country

would be far less than 40 lakh. In actual terms this growth is not dramatically

high.

Clearly, the PC sales

numbers must start increasing now. The challenge is to replicate the cell phone

magic in the PC space. And that is a big challenge, because if the industry

attempts to do that, then it must sell about 80 lakh PCs in 2006. It is a big

challenge, but not something that cannot be achieved. Provided the vendors make

a national case out of it, and the government can see the big picture.

Let me first try and

pull in the government, which was perhaps the biggest enabler in the great

strides that the cell phone subscriber base made. Tariffs tumbled, handset

prices slid, and services were available in places far and wide. All this

happened because the government gave its full support in terms of policies and

incentives. For instance, the telecom policies should allow BPO companies to

have its executives work from home, seamlessly.

If we take a closer

look at the IDC survey findings, one interesting trend that is emerging is the

growth of the next rung. Lots of people in B, C and D category towns are now

buying PCs. The PC vendors must remember that this buyer category is price

sensitive, and their need for support might also be higher. Therefore, if

vendors approach this market with a volume perspective, they will find the

movement faster.

Besides policies, the

government needs to and can do a lot more, including greater focus on power

generation and supply. In smaller cities and the towns, power supply is a big

show-stopper. The few things that the government can also take up, to begin

with, is to identify about 50 category B and C towns and focus on building the

infrastructure there. The government must realize that BPO will be a huge

industry in India with global ramifications, and will need to move quickly to

leverage the opportunity. This move will also help in higher usage of IT and PCs

in places besides the big cities.  One

more important thing needed here is lobbying. The government will have to be

pushed. The PC vendors and the BPOs; and the PC vendors will have to have a much

stronger voice now.

Fortunately, the

mood is right. The country is currently in the realization phase that India is

likely to play a big role in a knowledge economy. And Indians are also a getting

a feel that they will play a global role, and that a lot of it will revolve

around the IT and knowledge of IT. Actually, the same thing is happening with

cell phones-many people are buying cell phones because they see value in it.

They believe that owning a cell phone can increase income, and save time.

Therefore, now is the right time for PC industry to work towards converting this

feel good factor for IT into sales, and PC sales to begin with.