But who will be the FM?

The Indian economy is not really in a mess, but maybe not very far from slipping into one. When the rumor got going that prime minister Manmohan Singh could be elevated to the Rashtrapati Bhavan and Pranab Mukherjee could be the PM and have a more direct control over the cabinet of ministers, there was a big section in the industry that was smiling. But that was not to be.

However, in the excitement and the hullabaloo of the forthcoming Presidential election in India, and the politics behind it, we seem to have forgotten a much more important question: Who will replace Pranab Mukherjee as the new finance minister?

The new finance minister could decide the fate of the Indian economy as well the Congress led UPA, which is the present government. If the new finance minister is good, the UPA government has a big chance to form the government again in 2014. My assessment is that if UPA can turn the economy around - or demonstrate that they are taking strong steps in that direction - voters will bring them back. The problem is that the present government seems to have got into a policy paralysis, a term that has become very popular these days. The opposition is in shambles, and the President's election campaign has further proved that. On corruption, there is not much to differentiate between UPA and NDA, except that UPA has been punishing the culprits and NDA has been too weak to deal with them.

So it is essentially the economy that is the differentiator, and can bring UPA back. The bigger question, therefore, for the industry as well as Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh should be, who will be the next Finance Minister and how will the economy be brought back on the growth path. The job is clearly cut out - control inflation, enthuse domestic markets, create an environment conducive for investments, start market and governance reforms again, and bring back the focus on infrastructure. I see no reason why the UPA cannot attempt doing it in the roughly two and half years they have before the next elections.

And not just the finance minister, the PM should ideally re-shuffle his cabinet and get good and effective ministers in other areas too because they will have to finally implement the finance minister's goal. Obviously, equally, if not more important will be the need to have all other ministers to work in harmony. Either the PM or someone will have to make sure that the government works like a single team.

Rumor mills will start rolling again soon with possible names for the next finance minister. This has not happened in the past, but I recommend that the industry come out with a few names they think have the courage, capability and the vision to change things. There is no reason for the industry, which will ultimately create those goods and services and create jobs to grow the economy, to state their expectations.