Beyond The Internet Revolution

For the times they are a changing,”... the famous words of Bob Dylan never sounded more true than they do today. Those of us who think that our lives have been changed forever by the internet, we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. The millennium holds the promise of a revolution that we can only begin to imagine today. Over the last few years, the internet has already changed the way we work, learn, play, create, communicate and shop. The new millennium is likely to herald in an era of the ubiquitous internet, where users will not be tied to their desks when using the web. Access to the web will be from anywhere and at anytime!

At the core of the anywhere-anytime access option, is the wireless revolution which is well underway. The spread of mobile communications, to date, far exceeds the spread of the usage of internet. Not only are there more wireless users than internet users, but also, the ease of wireless network deployment means that there are many countries that have essentially only wireless infrastructure. This includes parts of

China and Africa. Cellular phone coverage in China is better than many parts of the US.

The union of internet and wireless communication is already occurring to some extent. However, current access speeds are too slow to be of much practical use. In 2001, Japan will be the first market to leap into the ‘third generation’ of mobile telephony. 3G as it is called, is a high speed data technology that will reach a blinding 2 megabits per second by 2003–40 times faster than an average dial-up modem. This will pave the way for video-conferencing, stereo web surfing and virtually any mobile service for which markets can be found. A key requirement for wireless internet access to take off, will be a single open standard for delivering suitable content to wireless devices. In fact, that is exactly what WAP (wireless application protocol) is all about and it allows mobile devices to gain access to the internet by using a ‘microbrowser’ which displays web pages specially formatted for tiny screens. Several companies are about to launch products based on this protocol.

Yet another key wireless technology is known as ‘Bluetooth’ being developed by several companies including Intel. Bluetooth defines how devices should transmit data to each other using short range radio links instead of cables. Within a couple of years, about 80% of mobile phones will carry a $5 Bluetooth chip that can connect them to similarly equipped notebook computers, printers and potentially any other digital device within about ten meters. On the home front, anytime access for practical purposes means ‘always on’ and broadband access. Cable modems as well as DSL (digital subscriber line) a technology that turns traditional copper wires into ‘fat pipes’ are now becoming widely available. Each approach has its strengths and each offers ‘always-on’ internet access as much as 30 times faster than the speediest dial up modems.

While there is a lot of experimentation underway as far as access devices to the internet are concerned, it is believed that PCs and smart phones will be the primary access devices to the internet. While there has been talk about PCs becoming less important in the internet era, the fact of the matter is that the worldwide PC industry continues to grow very healthily. To misquote Mark Twain, “ the news of its death has been grossly exaggerated” To quote a modern day icon, Andy Grove has described the PC as the ultimate Darwinian device which continues to evolve to meet changes in user requirements. Over the last few years, PCs have become much more affordable and they will continue on that trend. Another area which needs attention is ease of use.

With increased processing power, it will become much easier to handle audio and video streams. More importantly, speech recognition will become mainstream thus making it much easier for the common man to use PCs. Translation technology will also turn the internet into a multi-lingual real-time intercom. It will therefore be possible to hold a conversation in English with a friend in Tokyo who understands only Japanese. On a more practical level the benefits in educating a multilingual society like India are incredible, since content is still primarily available in English today. In summary, the internet revolution will continue to evolve based on advances in computing and communications technology and truly make this, the information age. The economy worldwide will be transformed into the internet economy and those who reposition their businesses to take advantage of this revolution will stand to benefit tremendously. The rest will, of course, be left behind!