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The fear that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will replace countless vocations shortly has recently become a hotly debated global concern. A new analysis has thrown light on how AI will affect the employment market in the United States and which firms it will most likely harm.
According to a new report, by 2030, generative AI might account for up to 30% of the hours worked in the US economy.
Trend by Generative AI
"By 2030, activities that account for up to 30 percent of hours currently worked across the US economy could be automated — a trend accelerated by generative AI," the report stated.
Generative AI will not immediately eliminate many professions but will improve how STEM, creative, business, and legal professionals work. However, it was stated that the most significant effects of automation are expected to be felt in other job categories, such as office support, customer service, and food service work. According to the McKinsey analysis, an extra 12 million occupational transitions may be required in the United States alone by 2030.
How will various occupations be impacted by AI?
According to the survey, the healthcare industry will see the most future job growth, with 3.5 million new openings for health aides, health technicians, and wellness employees. It is also predicted that the need for STEM professions will increase by 23% by 2030.
"Although layoffs in the tech sector have been making headlines in 2023, this does not change the longer-term demand for tech talent among companies of all sizes and sectors as the economy continues to digitise," the report stated.
According to the McKinsey report, banking, insurance, pharmaceutical, and healthcare firms are undergoing significant digital transitions and require advanced tech professionals. It also stated that job growth in the transport services area is predicted to be 9% by 2030. However, the most significant future employment losses will be in office support, customer service, and food services.
Demand for clerks in the United States might fall by 1.6 million jobs, in addition to 830,000 job losses for retail salespeople, 710,000 for administrative assistants, and 630,000 for cashiers.
According to the report, jobs that entail a large percentage of repetitive tasks, data gathering, and basic data processing will be the most impacted by automation.
Low-wage workers will be hurt the hardest by AI revolution
According to the analysis, low-wage workers in the United States (those earning less than $30,800 per year and those earning $30,800 to $38,200 per year) are up to 10 and 14 times more likely than high-wage workers to need to change occupations by the end of this decade.
"As people leave lower-wage jobs, the economy may shift towards higher-wage jobs." Workers in lower-wage employment are up to 14 times more likely than those in higher-wage positions to need to change occupations," adding that most of these workers will need additional skills to do so successfully. The survey also warned that women are 1.5 times as likely than males to need to change jobs.
"Those with less education, women, and people of colour are disproportionately represented in the two lowest wage quintiles today." Women are overrepresented in office support and customer service, which are expected to fall by 3.7 million and 2.0 million jobs, respectively, by 2030," according to the report.
Twelve million working hours
According to the report, a resolution has yet to be reached on whether generative AI would eliminate jobs. However, it declined to rule out the possibility of job losses shortly. "While technological advances frequently cause disruption, they have historically fueled economic and employment growth," it stated. The drop in food services, customer service and sales, office support, and manufacturing labour might account for about ten million (more than 84%) of the 12 million occupational shifts projected by 2030.
"By contrast, occupations in management, healthcare, transportation, and STEM were resilient during the pandemic and are poised for continued growth." By 2030, these occupations will likely witness less than one million job changes."