Active vs Passive Mobile Users in India

Imagine Big B asking this question in the latest version of the quiz show, Kaun Banega Crorepatihow many mobile subscribers does India have? The choices are:

#A- less than 200 mn
#B- between 200400 mn
#C- between 400 mn1 bn and
#D- more than 1 bn.

And if the contestant on the hot seat chooses to take the help of a lifelineaudience pollmost likely he/she will end up with an answer #C. Because that is what Trai tells usIndia had 670.6 mn mobile users by the end of August, with a net addition of more than 18 mn in that month. But, if the contestant has to take the help of an expert and the expert happens to be Mrutunjay Mishra, director of New Delhi based market research firm, Juxt, the answer could be very, very different.

According to a recent study by Mishras firm, JuxtIndiaMobile 2010, India has only 355 mn active mobile connections, being used by 304 mn subscribers.
But what explains the huge difference? The Juxt study measured only those mobile connections (SIMs) which are actively in use at the time of the survey, not counting the passive SIMs that may still be lying with the subscribers unsurrendered but not being used actively. Trai reports all unsurrendered mobile connections (SIMs) in circulation as reported by the mobile operators, which may be actively in use or lying passive (in use sporadically, rarely, or not in use at all).

Needless to say, it is the active connections that represent an actual picture of mobile penetration in India. I have taken four pre-paid connections in the last one year or so, says Dharam Pal, a driver, who is using his Airtel connection and has never really used the other pre-paid connections. In the Trai data, he is counted four times. In the Juxt survey, he is counted once. Dharam says most of his friends have multiple SIM cards, but usually use only one. Some of them are not even active and they have not even kept track.

The Juxt survey was conducted over a period of two months during April and May, 2010. The survey was done in more than 37,024 households in hundred cities and 20,396 households in 1,040 villages. Estimates cover both multiple SIM mobile users as well as those accessing Internet on their mobile phones, says Mishra.

Many Surprises

The survey throws up a number of surprises. It is found that rural India accounts for almost as many active mobile subscribers and subscriptions as urban Indiarural users show the same propensity to take up multiple SIMs as urban users. But they show lower propensity to have multiple mobile users in the household, says the survey.

Another surprise is the profile of the user. In the urban areas, housewives and students form the second and third biggest chunk of mobile users (both segments counting for more mobile users than all the corporate employees, self-employed professionals, and business owners put together). With over half of all mobile users coming from 6,250-40,000 MHI groups, the critical mass of Indian mobile usage revolves around the middle and lower middle income groups. This is a significant finding for marketers who want to increase their product consumption in those segments.

Also, allaying all fears of the existing operators, 2/3rd mobile users say they will not switch operators even if the number becomes portable.
The survey found that Nokia is the market leader in handset category with 62.2% market share followed by LG with 10.2%, Samsung at 9.2%, Sony Ericsson at 3.6%, Micromax and Motorola at 1.6% each, and the list goes long.

In terms of operators preference, this survey shows that Airtel is the market leader with 27.7% share of all active subscribers base, followed by Vodafone with 15.6% active subscriber base, Reliance at 15.1%, Idea at 13.1%, BSNL at 10.6%, Tata Teleservices at 7.7%, Aircel at 6.9%, Loop Mobile at 0.6%, Sistema Shyam, Uninor and MTNL each had market share of 0.6%.

Among only GSM players, Airtel stays at the top with 34.4%. Among only CDMA players, Reliance Communication topped with 55.9%.

A Dataquest report
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