A Dream Too Outrageous?

"In the computers industry, it is difficult even to dream. When 1980

began, there were no personal computers, no low-cost PCs, no 3.5-inch floppies,

no supercomputers, and no high-tech industry in India. A mere nine years later,

the wheels turned. Can one really dream what the next ten years will bring to an

unsuspecting world?"

--Dataquest, in 1989

But

Dataquest did dream, right from Day One. In the very first issue in December

1982, Dataquest proclaimed that the Indian computer industry, though small by

Western standards, would be the fastest-growing industrial sector of all. Since

that first forecast, the industry has grown at nearly 50% each year to touch

today’s levels of Rs 70,000 crore-plus... That’s some march!

Along that road, a lot has changed–and a lot hasn’t. What editors back

then sought to place between the covers of Dataquest was "information about

new products, new technology and new developments". Information about the

success of existing products and the experience of users was the next step. When

we see that this is broadly what readers look for even today, it is a wonderful

feeling–we got it right first time. And then in 1989, Dataquest spoke of

piracy as a growing problem, one that would refuse to go away for long. And even

though concerted efforts to check piracy have been made over the years, the

problem persists.

Dataquest’s first editorial in December 1982 said–"Astute

businessmen realize that the key to success is information." In the latest

issue, even as the magazine reaches out to the CIOs of top enterprises in the

country, the companies that have emerged as the best in India are those that

have used IT for their benefit...

Lotus Development chief Mitchell Kapor had imagined that almost all PCs would

take the shape of hardcover books by the end of the decade. With handhelds

having penetrated the corporate segment in a big way and the Tablet PC in 2002,

that’s pretty close. "But that," Dataquest had commented in 1989,

"is fine for America. But where would all this leave India? Datacom, ISDN,

packet switches and cheap computer hardware may offer the average Indian

urbanite a chance to be part of the global computer networks, to a degree never

had before." We were pretty close as well.

In the same year, Dataquest predicted that computers stand a good change of

being as common in Indian homes as were video cassette recorders and color TVs

at that time, stating–"Computer prices have dropped faster and steeper

than that of VCRs and CTVs, and if computers can merge some entertainment value

with utility, the average Indian VCR/CTV buyer may just pick up a computer from

a downtown electronics shop."

In November 1993, amidst skepticism from IT vendors and government

departments, Dataquest predicted that the IT industry was entering a bull phase.

The recession and subsequent expenditure cutbacks were too fresh in everybody’s

mind to see light at the end of the tunnel. It turned out we had been right.

Having said that, it needs to be stressed that we have been wrong too. But we

have never been scared to dream, and speak out loud. Like we do now–In the

next 15 years, India, as we know it, and computing, as we understand it, will

undergo tremendous changes. Even relatively new concepts, such as the Internet

and object databases, will yield place to far more exciting ways to do your job

better…The deadline for this dream is an entire decade away. But the strides

towards fulfilling this vision have been more purposeful and stronger than ever

imagined.

And so, Dataquest is ready with more spirited dreams–and the more

far-fetched they sound today, the more respect they will command from the team

that rolls out Dataquest’s 40th anniversary issue in December 2022. The

frenetic pace of Indian IT will ensure that this happens.

Rajeev Narayan