The Future Of Computing

Dr ERIC SCHMIDT, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, size="2">NOVELL INC.

The computer industry

has been marked by two seismic shifts: first, from the mainframe to the PC, and more

recently, from the PC to the network. Given the scope and scale, this latest shift,

entailing the move from platform-dependent client-server architecture to

platform-independent network services, may be bigger than the transition from the

mainframe to the PC.

hspace="0" width="128" height="227">Network services, such as directory, security and

collaboration, provide the foundation for intranets that bring advanced capabilities to

organizations of every type and size. The Java programming language and network services

are the key enabling technologies to allow new classes of applications, including

ecommerce to be made available to any user at any kind of computer. Intranets and

extranets built on robust network services can connect even the smallest business into the

global economy.

Students of pattern recognition can

sometimes glimpse the future by looking at trends shaping the technology today. One

interesting pattern is what I call a technology inversion. Such an inversion is something

previously known as a truth turned upside down and supplanted by a new model as technology

evolves and reveals otherwise. Each inversion spawns new, distinct markets worth billion

dollars. Expect many inversions over the next two years.

Perhaps, no inversion is more interesting

than the intranet extending out to the Internet, via extranets. The premise of the old

model was that the intranet is internal, the Internet is external, and the two would never

meet. The firewall was Doctor No; it didn't let anything internal reach the external

world. The new model has encrypted networks between intranet and Internet. The future is

about point-to-point encryption-about folding one's most valuable partners and customers

into the intelligence of the operation, via extranets.

To illustrate, let's look at Novell's

Border Manager which allows extension of a customer's network into an extranet. Border

Manager is the industry's first integrated family of directory-based network services that

manages, secures, and accelerates user access to information at every point where any two

networks meet. It enables the enterprise to expand from a strict yes/no firewall system to

a secure point-to-point encrypted network, where security is less of a technology issue

and more of a business issue. Border Manager transforms an intranet into something that

enterprises can embrace to advance their business externally. The boundaries of a

corporation or an institution can be defined by their security policy, rather than their

technology policy.

Novell and others are at the forefront of

an IT revolution driven by open standards-based networking. IT managers are realizing that

to gain the full benefits of a networked enterprise, they need seamless interoperability

that ties internal systems and links them to the rest of the world. Open standard products

also give them greater freedom of choice. Organizations can choose the best mix of

platforms, tools, and applications to solve their business problems.

Java is central to any discussion about

open standards. Till date, most Java applications development has been on the client, but

the real opportunity for Java is when it's fully implemented on the server. Many of the

criticisms of Java on client-performance, user interface, and cross platform issues, for

example-are not as relevant to a discussion of Java on the server. Server-side Java

implementations highlight one of Java's strongest benefits-platform independence; they

also allow for faster performance and portability of applications, and enable the

development of network-aware applications. Java on the server is a core part of Novell's

strategy.

Another inversion is happening in

telephony. We started out accessing the Internet on top of the phone system, and we'll end

up with telephony running on top of the Net. A completely unregulated network is toppling

its highly regulated predecessor. These kinds of inversions will continue.

Today, the Net is mostly used to obtain and

communicate information. The next big development will be to conduct business securely

over the Internet. Ecommerce will happen quickly-within the next year or two. When it

happens depends upon secured transaction systems and scalable network services. More

significantly than 'when' is 'what' and 'who'. Commerce on the Internet will spawn

completely new classes of applications and categories of activities.

The winners in this space will be those who

go beyond the Internet to repackage what they did in the physical space into innovative

applications relevant and ultimately indispensable to the way people live. Nearly half of

Novell's revenues come from outside the US, and the company intends to increase this

business. The combination of a highly skilled, highly technical workforce plus a

willingness to apply technology in innovative ways makes India one of the most promising

markets for Novell.