IT 2000: Partytime, Sort Of

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best growth in four years. A $3.9 billion IT market. Software exports up 50% to

$3.6 billion, with a $50 billion Target 2008. Global demand for our IT

professionals.

Good times for Indian infotech.

But let’s hold that champagne for a moment. And check how long a way we

have to go. Let’s look at three key new-economy indicators.

PCs: Yes, India bought over 1.12 million in 1990-2000. But it’s time to get

past the euphoria of the million-PC club. We’re just 8% of the region’s PC

numbers. Despite a slump, China’s market is four times bigger.

The reality check: one PC for 250 people in India, a tenth of the cable TV

usage. China too has a big rural population, but its $11 billion computer market

will take up a third of the regional pie by 2004–with 33 million internet

users, IDC projects China’s internet economy growing 170% annually to reach

over $114 billion that year.

Telephony: One phone for every 40 Indians, versus a TV set for every 13.

Phones are not just critical for our far-flung population, but also are the

internet access medium. Geography makes the case for cellular, but there’s

less than one handset for 600 Indians. Two-thirds of Finland uses cellphones–they’re

cheaper than land-lines when setting up a new office.

Bandwidth: The final frontier for India’s new economy. This is the measure

of a country’s progress in the Net age, and it says: India is in the dark

ages. Its 300Mbps gateway to the world is less than what a Singapore company

uses. And it links to a backbone that’s down to kilobits at places.

And our hundred thousand websites are hosted in the US. They pay US dollars

for support, manpower, software and other key Indian strengths–all because we

have no bandwidth.

The good thing is that the first steps have accompanied our crossing the

millennium’s edge.

The million PC annual mark. A million cellular-user base. Private telephony.

First steps toward fixing the problems. I wrote about the bandwidth crunch on

this page in April. Now Nasscom’s Operation Bandwidth has asked for 10Gbps

this year, and 300Gbps by 2005.

The greatest millennium gift for India will be bandwidth.

It could rapidly change IT industry performance this year. And become the

backbone of the e-conomy ahead.

We’ve just stepped off the shore. We’ve got our feet a little wet, and

the water looks inviting. We can pop that cork, after all. But let’s go easy

on the champagne. There’s serious work to be done this year.